{"source":"manifold","id":"JUvepd2I1LgLiCozZLZU","ticker":null,"slug":"will-an-ai-get-a-nobel-prize-before","title":"Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?","description":"in the areas of Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature, Economics or Peace.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-26T00:54:09.769000Z","end_date":"2049-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12162.896948478856,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.21379089355469,"liquidity":1600.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.28,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?","top_outcome_probability":0.28,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-an-ai-get-a-nobel-prize-before","chart_24h":[0.28,0.28],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"JUvepd2I1LgLiCozZLZU","event_id":"JUvepd2I1LgLiCozZLZU","slug":"will-an-ai-get-a-nobel-prize-before","question":"Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?","group_item_title":null,"description":"in the areas of Physics, Chemistry, Physiology or Medicine, Literature, Economics or Peace.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.28,0.72],"probability":0.28,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-01-26T00:54:09.769000Z","end_date":"2049-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12162.896948478856,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.21379089355469,"liquidity":1600.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T23:15:27.453992Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-15T18:10:46.229990Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/itsTomekK/will-an-ai-get-a-nobel-prize-before","event_title":"Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?","chart_24h":[0.28,0.28]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/JUvepd2I1LgLiCozZLZU","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:50:56.385324Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will an AI get a Nobel Prize before 2050?\" — top market at 28% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}