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In case there's any disagreement the first answer that matches the events wins. \n\nClarification regarding what counts as \"opposition\": If the election happens, Trump is still active, but doesn't endorse any candidate, then I'll count him as implicitly endorsing the republican candidate, UNLESS he completely breaks any ties with GOP in which case I will count GOP candidate as opposition. In particular, if Trump endorses an independent candidate, both GOP and Democratic candidates count as opposition.\n\nTrump is considered incapacitated if he doesn't make active public appearances for at least 6 consecutive months before the end of 2028.\n\nElection process is considered significantly changed if the results of the election can be plausibly affected by the changes or if the schedule of the election and power transition is changed. ID requirement is unlikely to change the outcome, so I don't consider it as \"significant change\".\n\nI do not bet on my own questions.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/OlegEterevsky/x51j08ycsx.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-06-10T02:47:40.605000Z","end_date":"2029-01-31T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43900.046878538524,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":42.896488189697266,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Elections","Politics"],"tags":["2024-us-presidential-election","politics-default","us-politics","us-democracy"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"6. 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Trump wins in 2024 and the candidate endorsed by Trump wins in 2028","group_item_title":"5. 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Trump wins in 2024 and dies in office or is incapacitated","group_item_title":"2. 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