{"source":"manifold","id":"K4GeoL0ziFc62ma3GvbV","ticker":"K4GeoL0ziFc62ma3GvbV","slug":"uk-general-election-2024-will-rishi","title":"UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP after the election?","description":"The UK will have a general election on 4th July.\n\nThe Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is also the MP for Richmond (Yorkshire). He is expected to win his seat but lose his majority. At this point, it is expected that he will resign or be removed as the leader of the Conservative Party with the new leader of the party taking over as the Leader of the Opposition (assuming they’re even the second biggest party - see @/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-party-wil-35d0bc6a20f9 )\n\nWill Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP once he steps down? He recently promised in an interview on Loose Women that he would, but this was the same interview where he said that there would not be a summer election!\n\nIf Sunak is returned to Parliament and serves out his full term as an MP (whether or not he is still PM or LOTO, and even if there is a very early election), this market will resolve to the YES option.\n\nIf Sunak is returned to Parliament but is removed for any reason before Parliament dissolves for the following general election, this market will resolve to the “NO, he will stand down” option.\n\nIf Sunak gives us the ultimate “Portillo moment”, this will resolve to the other NO option.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/SimonGrayson/5063257bc149.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-05-26T12:05:07.347000Z","end_date":"2028-04-28T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":30566.06823764017,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.0263557434082,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":["uk-politics","uk-conservative-party","-uk-general-election-2024"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Yes - Rishi Sunak will stay on as an MP until the next general election","top_outcome_probability":0.897943,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-19T07:46:16.211988Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-19T07:46:16.211988Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-rishi","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"aba571ae061d","event_id":"K4GeoL0ziFc62ma3GvbV","slug":null,"question":"Yes - Rishi Sunak will stay on as an MP until the next general election","group_item_title":"Yes - Rishi Sunak will stay on as an MP until the next general election","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.897943,0.102057],"probability":0.897943,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-05-26T12:05:07.347000Z","end_date":"2028-04-28T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":929.3191329115667,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.534149169921875,"liquidity":353.5533905932738,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-20T17:13:43.796912Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-20T17:13:36.988679Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-rishi","event_title":"UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP after the election?","chart_24h":[0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943,0.897943]},{"source":"manifold","id":"3828bd4a11b3","event_id":"K4GeoL0ziFc62ma3GvbV","slug":null,"question":"No - Rishi Sunak will stand down as an MP before the next general election","group_item_title":"No - Rishi Sunak will stand down as an MP before the next general election","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.9],"probability":0.1,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-05-26T12:05:07.347000Z","end_date":"2028-04-28T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":793.095887891297,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.73130989074707,"liquidity":353.5533905932738,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-20T17:13:43.796912Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-20T17:13:36.988679Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-rishi","event_title":"UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP after the election?","chart_24h":[0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cd18cebd2a97","event_id":"K4GeoL0ziFc62ma3GvbV","slug":null,"question":"No - Rishi Sunak will not be returned as an MP in the 2024 General Election","group_item_title":"No - Rishi Sunak will not be returned as an MP in the 2024 General Election","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.002057,0.997943],"probability":0.002057,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-05-26T12:05:07.347000Z","end_date":"2028-04-28T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":353.5533905932738,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United Kingdom"],"updated_at":"2026-06-20T17:13:43.796912Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-20T17:13:36.988679Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-rishi","event_title":"UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP after the election?","chart_24h":[0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057,0.002057]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/K4GeoL0ziFc62ma3GvbV","as_of":"2026-06-20T17:25:03.025889Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak stay on as an MP after the election?\" — top market at 90% probability across 3 outcomes","source_url":null}}