{"source":"manifold","id":"K6a5FaIDE1jEwvLIBoiB","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2027","title":"Will we get AGI before 2027?","description":"AGI defined as transformative, at least human-level, but potentially superhuman AI, capable of doing at least any cognitive task humans can do, at least at human level.\n\nRelated to: https://manifold.markets/MarioCannistra/will-we-get-agi-before-2026\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-25T01:42:49.486000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8453.951006924199,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.660844802856445,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.060445,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.060445,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-10T23:30:13.250094Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-10T23:30:13.250094Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MarioCannistra/will-we-get-agi-before-2027","chart_24h":[0.060445,0.060445],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"K6a5FaIDE1jEwvLIBoiB","event_id":"K6a5FaIDE1jEwvLIBoiB","slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2027","question":"Will we get AGI before 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"AGI defined as transformative, at least human-level, but potentially superhuman AI, capable of doing at least any cognitive task humans can do, at least at human level.\n\nRelated to: https://manifold.markets/MarioCannistra/will-we-get-agi-before-2026\n\n[link preview]","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.060445,0.939555],"probability":0.060445,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-08-25T01:42:49.486000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8453.951006924199,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":30.660844802856445,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T17:51:05.163848Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-10T23:29:28.023135Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/MarioCannistra/will-we-get-agi-before-2027","event_title":"Will we get AGI before 2027?","chart_24h":[0.060445,0.060445]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/K6a5FaIDE1jEwvLIBoiB","as_of":"2026-07-25T20:12:28.754363Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get AGI before 2027?\" — top market at 6% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}