{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Kv4G9NKfTVWUTOevc9Al","as_of":"2026-10-24T07:35:26.823402Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?\" — 18% as of 2026-10-17 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Kv4G9NKfTVWUTOevc9Al","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-the-war-in-ukraine-still-be-on"},"source":"manifold","id":"Kv4G9NKfTVWUTOevc9Al","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-war-in-ukraine-still-be-on","title":"Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?","description":"Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists. Unless they have a permanent ceasefire and <10 fatalities per year, like Korea.  Regardless of treaties, the war \"ends\" when there is a 1 year period with <10 combat fatalities.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-05-14T01:21:18.401000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T06:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14561.852627714477,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.80036544799805,"liquidity":1260.390868185129,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.182017,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.182017,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-17T12:38:19.022141Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T12:38:19.022141Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-the-war-in-ukraine-still-be-on","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"Kv4G9NKfTVWUTOevc9Al","event_id":"Kv4G9NKfTVWUTOevc9Al","slug":"will-the-war-in-ukraine-still-be-on","question":"Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves yes if there is a state of war between Ukraine and Russia or Russian-backed separatists. Unless they have a permanent ceasefire and <10 fatalities per year, like Korea.  Regardless of treaties, the war \"ends\" when there is a 1 year period with <10 combat fatalities.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.182017,0.817983],"probability":0.182017,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-05-14T01:21:18.401000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T06:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":14561.852627714477,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.80036544799805,"liquidity":1260.390868185129,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-17T12:35:52.388996Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-17T12:35:52.388996Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-the-war-in-ukraine-still-be-on","event_title":"Will the war in Ukraine still be ongoing on Jan 1 2030?","chart_24h":null}]}