{"source":"manifold","id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","ticker":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":"who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","description":"An International Peacekeeping force includes troops from the West and some other geopolitical area - eg China, Middle East or Africa.\n","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-02T18:19:01.351000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":29789.66446852193,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":39.166358947753906,"liquidity":4545.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World"],"tags":["arabisraeli-conflict","israelhamas-conflict-2023","israel"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised","top_outcome_probability":0.319348,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-30T18:44:40.423408Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-30T18:44:40.423408Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"E5hQg8uqSd","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised","group_item_title":"Technocratic committee, not elected, internationally supervised","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.319348,0.680652],"probability":0.319348,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-08T21:45:09.405000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":792.6379711258528,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.45085906982422,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348,0.319348]},{"source":"manifold","id":"d3cac2ec3f4c","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Israel","group_item_title":"Israel","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.314817,0.685183],"probability":0.314817,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-02T18:19:01.352000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2461.414654488688,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.503692626953125,"liquidity":1106.25,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817,0.314817]},{"source":"manifold","id":"b037995800ba","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Hamas","group_item_title":"Hamas","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.210978,0.789022],"probability":0.210978,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-02T18:19:01.352000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":931.5909755522481,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.255529403686523,"liquidity":486.25,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978,0.210978]},{"source":"manifold","id":"42e13bb43d7f","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"PLO","group_item_title":"PLO","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.054306,0.945694],"probability":0.054306,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-03T13:38:48.136000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":268.608169822582,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.560595512390137,"liquidity":183.8913664486819,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306,0.054306]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9c8fc0b54f9c","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"International Peacekeeping Force","group_item_title":"International Peacekeeping Force","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.032778,0.967222],"probability":0.032778,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-02T18:19:01.352000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":388.6765857416871,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.132317543029785,"liquidity":471.25,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778,0.032778]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2370c2d86bce","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.020567,0.979433],"probability":0.020567,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-02T18:19:01.352000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":426.72706832683315,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":13.545730590820312,"liquidity":203.86422359741425,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567,0.020567]},{"source":"manifold","id":"I6usSI696L","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"United States","group_item_title":"United States","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.011798,0.988202],"probability":0.011798,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-02-05T00:30:21.775000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.17730672657489777,"liquidity":61.44000176823557,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798,0.011798]},{"source":"manifold","id":"590a4732efb5","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Arab only Peacekeeping Force","group_item_title":"Arab only Peacekeeping Force","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.010185,0.989815],"probability":0.010185,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-02T18:20:14.713000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":17.256712329938967,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.11334228515625,"liquidity":20.3125,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185,0.010185]},{"source":"manifold","id":"bab834ccffe8","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"A new Gaza-elected government ","group_item_title":"A new Gaza-elected government ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.007278,0.992722],"probability":0.007278,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-20T07:30:22.768000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2.4267981855239142,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.5597991943359375,"liquidity":25.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278,0.007278]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tIZCn2ChtA","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Territorial rule by tribal clans","group_item_title":"Territorial rule by tribal clans","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.005072,0.994928],"probability":0.005072,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-04-17T03:41:55.243000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19.49714070703584,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":3.3664352893829346,"liquidity":88.15602441578861,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072,0.005072]},{"source":"manifold","id":"hE6PSApQn8","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Turkey","group_item_title":"Turkey","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.003933,0.996067],"probability":0.003933,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-10-08T18:20:37.582000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":64.05625578766387,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":6.4333882331848145,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933,0.003933]},{"source":"manifold","id":"a14668740ad0","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Saudi Arabia","group_item_title":"Saudi Arabia","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.002194,0.997806],"probability":0.002194,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-06T19:28:43.684000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1.994294763319516,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.4438711404800415,"liquidity":24.241054778294544,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194,0.002194]},{"source":"manifold","id":"b5c743104530","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Qatar","group_item_title":"Qatar","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.001666,0.998334],"probability":0.001666,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-06T19:22:19.939000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.7092269062995911,"liquidity":22.902070579080156,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666,0.001666]},{"source":"manifold","id":"76960f452cc7","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"United Arab Emirates","group_item_title":"United Arab Emirates","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.001639,0.998361],"probability":0.001639,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-06T19:22:10.362000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.17730672657489777,"liquidity":21.095461774061036,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639,0.001639]},{"source":"manifold","id":"8b0769ceb2cd","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Egypt","group_item_title":"Egypt","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.001619,0.998381],"probability":0.001619,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-06T19:21:28.227000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6.782939247181218,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.5538214445114136,"liquidity":17.436821689228413,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619,0.001619]},{"source":"manifold","id":"85b23d02b29e","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Jordan","group_item_title":"Jordan","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000631,0.999369],"probability":0.000631,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-06T19:23:09.006000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":23.72072194502313,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631,0.000631]},{"source":"manifold","id":"da7feb32d2d7","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"Palestinian Islamic Jihad","group_item_title":"Palestinian Islamic Jihad","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000509,0.999491],"probability":0.000509,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-06T19:31:20.080000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3.7143529267276563,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.8873202800750732,"liquidity":22.4334997369707,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509,0.000509]},{"source":"manifold","id":"d604a8c82987","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"African Peacekeeping Force","group_item_title":"African Peacekeeping Force","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00036,0.99964],"probability":0.00036,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-02T18:20:48.433000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":21.461033632796582,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036,0.00036]},{"source":"manifold","id":"15e2af6587b4","event_id":"L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","slug":null,"question":"PLA","group_item_title":"PLA","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000321,0.999679],"probability":0.000321,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-02T18:19:01.352000Z","end_date":"2027-11-09T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":31.25,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-10-02T10:44:17.493731Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-02T10:43:03.126226Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/who-is-next-running-gaza-in-for-6-m","event_title":"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?","chart_24h":[0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321,0.000321]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/L8ly9nrvCX1vjLcQvJq6","as_of":"2026-10-02T10:56:09.606578Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"After 6 months without open warfare, who will be in control of Gaza?\" — top market at 32% probability across 19 outcomes","source_url":null}}