{"source":"manifold","id":"LASsdLuUcU","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on","title":"Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?","description":"Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level. This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority. Tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government. Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.\n\nThere are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria regarding minority governments:\n\nAn AfD minority government tolerated by another party will resolve as YES (counts as being in power).\n\nThe AfD tolerating another party's minority government will resolve as NO (does not count).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-18T10:37:29.321000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12822.799655732057,"volume_24hr":1460.2070859951332,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.55381774902344,"normalized_volume":33.13648223876953,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.492231,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.492231,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.09595700000000007,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":135.25,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T08:35:47.502706Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T08:35:47.502706Z","added_at":"2026-09-08T00:28:24.299342Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on","chart_24h":[0.588188,0.588188,0.588188,0.588188,0.588188,0.499667,0.499667,0.492231,0.492231,0.492231,0.492231],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"LASsdLuUcU","event_id":"LASsdLuUcU","slug":"will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on","question":"Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level. This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority. Tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government. Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.\n\nThere are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria regarding minority governments:\n\nAn AfD minority government tolerated by another party will resolve as YES (counts as being in power).\n\nThe AfD tolerating another party's minority government will resolve as NO (does not count).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.492231,0.507769],"probability":0.492231,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-18T10:37:29.321000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12822.799655732057,"volume_24hr":1460.2070859951332,"prob_24h_change":-0.09595700000000007,"volume_24h_change":135.25,"normalized_vol_24hr":49.55381774902344,"normalized_volume":33.13648223876953,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T08:34:57.891776Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T08:34:57.891776Z","added_at":"2026-09-08T00:28:24.299342Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on","event_title":"Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.588188,0.588188,0.588188,0.588188,0.588188,0.499667,0.499667,0.492231,0.492231,0.492231,0.492231]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/LASsdLuUcU","as_of":"2026-09-08T08:50:44.967817Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?\" — top market at 49% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}