{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/LASsdLuUcU","as_of":"2026-10-24T08:24:13.123502Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?\" — 42% as of 2026-10-23 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/LASsdLuUcU","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on"},"source":"manifold","id":"LASsdLuUcU","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on","title":"Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?","description":"Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level. This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority. Tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government. Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.\n\nThere are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria regarding minority governments:\n\nAn AfD minority government tolerated by another party will resolve as YES (counts as being in power).\n\nThe AfD tolerating another party's minority government will resolve as NO (does not count).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-18T10:37:29.321000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14578.794874005653,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.808563232421875,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.42,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.42,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-64.95161423034722,"updated_at":"2026-10-23T17:45:27.542058Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T17:45:27.542058Z","added_at":"2026-09-08T00:28:24.299342Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on","chart_24h":[0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"LASsdLuUcU","event_id":"LASsdLuUcU","slug":"will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on","question":"Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level. This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority. Tolerating a minority government does not count. I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government. Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.\n\nThere are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified the resolution criteria regarding minority governments:\n\nAn AfD minority government tolerated by another party will resolve as YES (counts as being in power).\n\nThe AfD tolerating another party's minority government will resolve as NO (does not count).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.42,0.58],"probability":0.42,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-09-18T10:37:29.321000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":14578.794874005653,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-64.95161423034722,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.808563232421875,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Germany"],"updated_at":"2026-10-23T17:44:35.616030Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-23T17:44:35.616030Z","added_at":"2026-09-08T00:28:24.299342Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-the-german-afd-be-in-power-on","event_title":"Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42]}]}