{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/LAtEuhQL2p","as_of":"2026-10-13T06:55:42.248619Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we \"lose public key cryptography\" by EoY 2028?\" — 15% as of 2026-10-13 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/LAtEuhQL2p","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-we-lose-public-key-cryptograph"},"source":"manifold","id":"LAtEuhQL2p","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-lose-public-key-cryptograph","title":"Will we \"lose public key cryptography\" by EoY 2028?","description":"The cryptography professor Matthew Green makes a stark prediction:\n\nI think we might lose public key cryptography.\n\nhttps://x.com/matthew_d_green/status/2107992246360649879\n\nThe question asked by this market is simple, will we? I will define this as all existing public key cryptography algorithms in widespread use being undermined to the point of immediate deprecation by public advancements in mathematics. To get specific that means:\n\nRSA\n\nDiffie–Hellman\n\nElliptic-curve Diffie–Hellman\n\nECDSA\n\nEdDSA\n\nML-KEM\n\nStreamlined NTRU Prime (sntrup761)\n\nIt doesn't matter if the deprecation is caused by AI or not, nor does it matter if new algorithms are designed that immediately replace these and are considered safe. By \"public\" I mean that there exists a public demonstration which convinces experts that existing algorithms need to be immediately deprecated and people behave as though this is true (e.g. Chrome changes their crypto, or we temporarily shut down all e-commerce because it can't be guaranteed safe, things like this), the actual method that breaks the algorithms doesn't need to be public just that a party is in possession of one and the algorithms are now considered deprecated by experts.\n\nIf this happens by 2028 I resolve the question YES, if it doesn't happen I resolve NO at the end of 2028.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if we lose public key encryption, even if public key signing (such as hash-based signing) remains secure.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-08T07:32:51.458000Z","end_date":"2028-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6065.289946602476,"volume_24hr":195.30360837034945,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.394723892211914,"normalized_volume":27.919458389282227,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Crypto"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.147528,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we \"lose public key cryptography\" by EoY 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.147528,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.063871,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":160.67822478515578,"updated_at":"2026-10-13T06:55:16.060935Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-13T06:55:16.060935Z","added_at":"2026-10-10T09:36:26.741203Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-we-lose-public-key-cryptograph","chart_24h":[0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.148653,0.148653,0.148653,0.148653,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.144202,0.144202,0.144202,0.144202,0.147528,0.147528,0.147528],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"LAtEuhQL2p","event_id":"LAtEuhQL2p","slug":"will-we-lose-public-key-cryptograph","question":"Will we \"lose public key cryptography\" by EoY 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The cryptography professor Matthew Green makes a stark prediction:\n\nI think we might lose public key cryptography.\n\nhttps://x.com/matthew_d_green/status/2107992246360649879\n\nThe question asked by this market is simple, will we? I will define this as all existing public key cryptography algorithms in widespread use being undermined to the point of immediate deprecation by public advancements in mathematics. To get specific that means:\n\nRSA\n\nDiffie–Hellman\n\nElliptic-curve Diffie–Hellman\n\nECDSA\n\nEdDSA\n\nML-KEM\n\nStreamlined NTRU Prime (sntrup761)\n\nIt doesn't matter if the deprecation is caused by AI or not, nor does it matter if new algorithms are designed that immediately replace these and are considered safe. By \"public\" I mean that there exists a public demonstration which convinces experts that existing algorithms need to be immediately deprecated and people behave as though this is true (e.g. Chrome changes their crypto, or we temporarily shut down all e-commerce because it can't be guaranteed safe, things like this), the actual method that breaks the algorithms doesn't need to be public just that a party is in possession of one and the algorithms are now considered deprecated by experts.\n\nIf this happens by 2028 I resolve the question YES, if it doesn't happen I resolve NO at the end of 2028.\n\nUpdate 2026-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if we lose public key encryption, even if public key signing (such as hash-based signing) remains secure.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.147528,0.852472],"probability":0.147528,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-10-08T07:32:51.458000Z","end_date":"2028-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":6065.289946602476,"volume_24hr":195.30360837034945,"prob_24h_change":0.063871,"volume_24h_change":160.67822478515578,"normalized_vol_24hr":26.39560890197754,"normalized_volume":27.919458389282227,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Crypto"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-13T06:54:33.532573Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-13T06:54:33.532573Z","added_at":"2026-10-10T09:36:26.741203Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/JohnDavidPressman/will-we-lose-public-key-cryptograph","event_title":"Will we \"lose public key cryptography\" by EoY 2028?","chart_24h":[0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.083657,0.148653,0.148653,0.148653,0.148653,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.146042,0.144202,0.144202,0.144202,0.144202,0.147528,0.147528,0.147528]}]}