{"source":"manifold","id":"LCGP66NqO6S1xCIRKt0w","ticker":"LCGP66NqO6S1xCIRKt0w","slug":"how-will-the-ukrainerussia-border-l","title":"How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?","description":"Trying to predict the longer-term outcome of the conflict using 2030 as a cut off date sufficiently in the future hopefully.\n\nThere is a good chance that Russia and Ukraine disagree about the border. For example, Ukraine has not accepted the Crimea annexion in 2014. Instead defacto control is sufficient for resolution but it requires 6 months of cease-fire (if not peace).\n\nThe current goal of Ukraine is Pre-2014 border, i.e. Crimea is part of Ukraine again. The current goal of Russia is that Ukraine gives more territory to Russia than Crimea, e.g. Luhansk and Donetsk.\n\nMore fineprint from comment discussion:\n\nIf Ukraine controls only a minor part of Crimea, I'd still resolve as \"Pre-2022\".\n\nIf Ukraine-controlled landmass is roughly the same as \"Pre-2022\" then I would resolve it as such, even if the landmass is not all Crimea.\n\nIf Crimea becomes an independent state, it will hopefully clearly pick a side and we can resolve it as part of Russia or Ukraine\n\nUpdate 2025-02-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): State Existence Clarification:\n\nRump (Puppet) States: A state that exists only nominally (for example, a rump state) will be treated as not continuing to exist. The creator's example is that Chechnya does not exist, implying that if a state like Ukraine is reduced to a puppet or nominal rump state, it will be resolved as no longer existing.\n\nRecognized Independent States: A state with full, recognized independence is treated as having continued existence, as illustrated by the example that Belarus exists.\n\nThis clarification will guide future judgments regarding disputed or diminished state entities in the context of the market.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-02T09:32:08.128000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":150822.6108425712,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":53.37087631225586,"liquidity":10045.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Politics"],"tags":["ukraine","ukrainerussia-war","russia","geopolitics","world-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia","top_outcome_probability":0.721907,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-23T17:18:35.468214Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-23T17:18:35.468214Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/marktwse/how-will-the-ukrainerussia-border-l","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"de1bf0c1a6fc","event_id":"LCGP66NqO6S1xCIRKt0w","slug":null,"question":"Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia","group_item_title":"Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.721907,0.278093],"probability":0.721907,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-02T09:32:08.309000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1385.9214724934434,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":19.64844512939453,"liquidity":2632.009845186143,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T12:18:02.657168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T12:16:48.719670Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/marktwse/how-will-the-ukrainerussia-border-l","event_title":"How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?","chart_24h":[0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907,0.721907]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9431910c1272","event_id":"LCGP66NqO6S1xCIRKt0w","slug":null,"question":"No cease-fire of 6 months","group_item_title":"No cease-fire of 6 months","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.18239,0.81761],"probability":0.18239,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-02T09:32:08.309000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":639.032716210519,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":15.672540664672852,"liquidity":791.1292742547005,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T12:18:02.657168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T12:16:48.719670Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/marktwse/how-will-the-ukrainerussia-border-l","event_title":"How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?","chart_24h":[0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239,0.18239]},{"source":"manifold","id":"72eb8055cdae","event_id":"LCGP66NqO6S1xCIRKt0w","slug":null,"question":"Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine","group_item_title":"Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.072422,0.927578],"probability":0.072422,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-02T09:32:08.308000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":784.3930364158361,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.681102752685547,"liquidity":2210.0826112978903,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T12:18:02.657168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T12:16:48.719670Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/marktwse/how-will-the-ukrainerussia-border-l","event_title":"How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?","chart_24h":[0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422,0.072422]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cc23519bb14a","event_id":"LCGP66NqO6S1xCIRKt0w","slug":null,"question":"Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more","group_item_title":"Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.011133,0.988867],"probability":0.011133,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-02T09:32:08.309000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":225.71702965599613,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":11.042359352111816,"liquidity":887.1196992869541,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T12:18:02.657168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T12:16:48.719670Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/marktwse/how-will-the-ukrainerussia-border-l","event_title":"How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?","chart_24h":[0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133,0.011133]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2b1d0f47a2c3","event_id":"LCGP66NqO6S1xCIRKt0w","slug":null,"question":"No Ukraine anymore","group_item_title":"No Ukraine anymore","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00676,0.99324],"probability":0.00676,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-02T09:32:08.308000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.7214081287384033,"liquidity":205.44260706058412,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Ukraine","Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T12:18:02.657168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T12:16:48.719670Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/marktwse/how-will-the-ukrainerussia-border-l","event_title":"How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?","chart_24h":[0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676,0.00676]},{"source":"manifold","id":"7310746316ef","event_id":"LCGP66NqO6S1xCIRKt0w","slug":null,"question":"No Russia anymore","group_item_title":"No Russia anymore","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.005387,0.994613],"probability":0.005387,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-07-02T09:32:08.308000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":47.935569905272814,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.681747913360596,"liquidity":270.00372897921994,"categories":["World","Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-11T12:18:02.657168Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-11T12:16:48.719670Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/marktwse/how-will-the-ukrainerussia-border-l","event_title":"How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?","chart_24h":[0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387,0.005387]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/LCGP66NqO6S1xCIRKt0w","as_of":"2026-06-11T12:21:43.342683Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?\" — top market at 72% probability across 6 outcomes","source_url":null}}