{"source":"manifold","id":"LY6gHqig2w9NxKvLV1h6","ticker":null,"slug":"more-than-10-of-children-born-in-th","title":"More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030","description":"unconventionally conceived = conceived through IVF, or another method which isn't a natural man + woman + in-body conception + implantation scheme.  \n\ni.e. there is some intervention which changes the path, location, constituency, existence, or selection of the sperm or egg such as filtering sperm, artificially selecting sperm, temporarily removing the egg or fetus, exposing either of them to foreign agents for genetic/health purposes, or similar divergence from the conventional method with significant effects.\n\nJudging timespan: if such a condition holds for net children born over at least 6 months before the judging date.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FnF6POlpuqf.png?alt=media&token=46f87ed0-f14a-406d-bd3d-dad00abe11d9","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-30T21:10:29.734000Z","end_date":"2030-06-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4475.569783983474,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.528804779052734,"liquidity":1315.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.1294,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030","top_outcome_probability":0.1294,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Ernie/more-than-10-of-children-born-in-th","chart_24h":[0.1294,0.1294],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"LY6gHqig2w9NxKvLV1h6","event_id":"LY6gHqig2w9NxKvLV1h6","slug":"more-than-10-of-children-born-in-th","question":"More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030","group_item_title":null,"description":"unconventionally conceived = conceived through IVF, or another method which isn't a natural man + woman + in-body conception + implantation scheme.  \n\ni.e. there is some intervention which changes the path, location, constituency, existence, or selection of the sperm or egg such as filtering sperm, artificially selecting sperm, temporarily removing the egg or fetus, exposing either of them to foreign agents for genetic/health purposes, or similar divergence from the conventional method with significant effects.\n\nJudging timespan: if such a condition holds for net children born over at least 6 months before the judging date.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FnF6POlpuqf.png?alt=media&token=46f87ed0-f14a-406d-bd3d-dad00abe11d9","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.1294,0.8706],"probability":0.1294,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-30T21:10:29.734000Z","end_date":"2030-06-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4475.569783983474,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":26.528804779052734,"liquidity":1315.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Health"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Ernie/more-than-10-of-children-born-in-th","event_title":"More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030","chart_24h":[0.1294,0.1294]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/LY6gHqig2w9NxKvLV1h6","as_of":"2026-06-10T16:38:35.685668Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"More than 10% of children born in the US are unconventionally conceived by mid 2030\" — top market at 13% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}