{"source":"manifold","id":"MowtNfp5FkGicxbzsgcb","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2045","title":"Will we get AGI before 2045?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2045\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther reference points for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid \n\nSolar system exploration questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-91321e1429e9 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v-4013a9a91e65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-5bf1aa9694b5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-38be44fd5da1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p-a4f594d79453 \n\nOther questions for 2045:\n\n@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-1f72c4709f66 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-ce9d89c6a57d@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-15fec4a3f4e6 ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsPBe7vPpHy.png?alt=media&token=6c577f0d-d8f5-4782-829d-09069a6de70e","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-08T23:23:02.338000Z","end_date":"2045-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7164.093555370521,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.58162498474121,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.801374,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before 2045?","top_outcome_probability":0.801374,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045","chart_24h":[0.801374,0.801374],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"MowtNfp5FkGicxbzsgcb","event_id":"MowtNfp5FkGicxbzsgcb","slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2045","question":"Will we get AGI before 2045?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2045\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther reference points for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid \n\nSolar system exploration questions:\n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-91321e1429e9 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v-4013a9a91e65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-5bf1aa9694b5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-38be44fd5da1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p-a4f594d79453 \n\nOther questions for 2045:\n\n@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-1f72c4709f66 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift-ce9d89c6a57d@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-15fec4a3f4e6 ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FsPBe7vPpHy.png?alt=media&token=6c577f0d-d8f5-4782-829d-09069a6de70e","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.801374,0.198626],"probability":0.801374,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-08T23:23:02.338000Z","end_date":"2045-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7164.093555370521,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.58162498474121,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045","event_title":"Will we get AGI before 2045?","chart_24h":[0.801374,0.801374]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/MowtNfp5FkGicxbzsgcb","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:39:48.717314Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get AGI before 2045?\" — top market at 80% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}