{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/N0eRll0UhQdKsRXwqv4E","as_of":"2026-10-08T12:06:20.462578Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?\" — \"Other\" leads at 44% across 13 outcomes as of 2026-09-27 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/N0eRll0UhQdKsRXwqv4E","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Ernie/1-year-after-putin-who-will-be-the"},"source":"manifold","id":"N0eRll0UhQdKsRXwqv4E","ticker":"N0eRll0UhQdKsRXwqv4E","slug":"1-year-after-putin-who-will-be-the","title":"(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?","description":"I will not resolve to \"Other\". Although if you buy it you'll automatically get shares in any new options created. \n\n1 year after Putin dies or is clearly out of power (eg in jail, fled to Switzerland etc.)\n\nI will look in major media and find who is in charge.  I'll favor the nominal highest leader, who typically does things like occupy the place of most honor, have the most rights, speak at the most important occasions etc.  If there is a nominal leader who is a puppet, and we know the real power, I will choose the real power.  IE in recent times regardless of his title, Putin has been in charge. I will keep extending the close date if needed.  Nominate potential answers in comments and if reasonable I'll add them. \n\nMilestones:\n\nWhen Putin is out I will declare so in this market so you know the start date for the 1 year countdown\n\nI will continuously add contenders whose name comes up. If they die I will resolve them NO early. \n\nI will update the claim if required, attempting to preserve the meaning of the question. \n\nAfter a year we pick the person who is leader then and we are done. \n\nIf Russia breaks up it resolves to who is control of Moscow. If there is a government in exile I will count whoever has on-the-ground control of Moscow. If the status is unknown at due date I'll extend it and allow betting, and will judge based on the same target date as we find more information. (IE about what history was at the intended 1 year deadline date) to the extent possible. \n\nLinks: https://twitter.com/JulianWaller/status/1716830712266170671\n\nI will not resolve to 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