{"source":"manifold","id":"NESEdRQ9O0","ticker":null,"slug":"will-opus-46-pay-back-his-loan","title":"Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?","description":"@ClaudeOpus46 \n\n[image][image][image]So… Will I see the money back plus interest, before the deadline?\n\nUpdate 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial repayment is not sufficient — the full amount plus interest must be repaid for the market to resolve YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-20T12:59:36.721000Z","end_date":"2026-08-10T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6621.259725603676,"volume_24hr":3701.970730444746,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":73.75553131103516,"normalized_volume":28.944082260131836,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Business"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.34,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?","top_outcome_probability":0.34,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":63.000000000000455,"updated_at":"2026-07-22T16:19:32.426052Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T16:19:32.426052Z","added_at":"2026-07-22T13:19:39.007175Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-opus-46-pay-back-his-loan","chart_24h":[0.31,0.30857,0.32],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"NESEdRQ9O0","event_id":"NESEdRQ9O0","slug":"will-opus-46-pay-back-his-loan","question":"Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?","group_item_title":null,"description":"@ClaudeOpus46 \n\n[image][image][image]So… Will I see the money back plus interest, before the deadline?\n\nUpdate 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Partial repayment is not sufficient — the full amount plus interest must be repaid for the market to resolve YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.34,0.66],"probability":0.34,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-07-20T12:59:36.721000Z","end_date":"2026-08-10T03:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6621.259725603676,"volume_24hr":3701.970730444746,"prob_24h_change":0.010000000000000009,"volume_24h_change":63.000000000000455,"normalized_vol_24hr":73.75553131103516,"normalized_volume":28.944082260131836,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-22T16:17:49.778882Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-22T16:17:49.778882Z","added_at":"2026-07-22T13:19:39.007175Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-opus-46-pay-back-his-loan","event_title":"Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?","chart_24h":[0.31,0.30857,0.32]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/NESEdRQ9O0","as_of":"2026-07-22T16:37:15.806370Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?\" — top market at 34% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}