{"source":"manifold","id":"OgUy9yu6Zy","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-russiaukraine-war-end-befo-NN0qZO8E6t","title":"Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?","description":"This should capture common sense intuitions around \"war ends before the end of 2026\".\n\n\n\nResolves Yes if a formal peace agreement or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed before the end of 2026, and fighting between the major parties stops with no major flare-ups (>100 deaths) until the later of: the end of 2026, OR one month after it's signed.\n\nTemporary ceasefires that are later broken do not resolve yes.\n\nTemporary ceasefires that followed by a peace treaty do count, even if the treaty is signed after the end of '26, so long as fighting doesn't restart in the interim.\n\nA full agreement before the end of 2026, followed by a new war starting after 2026 still resolves Yes.\n\nNote: this means an agreement signed very late in 2026 must remain in effect for at least one month into 2027 for the market to resolve Yes.\n\nFeel free to ask questions in the comments to clarify remaining ambiguities.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-09T21:24:11.710000Z","end_date":"2027-02-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":24112.730424963134,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.222618103027344,"liquidity":1005.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.243324,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.243324,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-08T19:01:49.551296Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T19:01:49.551296Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/spider/will-the-russiaukraine-war-end-befo-NN0qZO8E6t","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"OgUy9yu6Zy","event_id":"OgUy9yu6Zy","slug":"will-the-russiaukraine-war-end-befo-NN0qZO8E6t","question":"Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This should capture common sense intuitions around \"war ends before the end of 2026\".\n\n\n\nResolves Yes if a formal peace agreement or armistice between Russia and Ukraine is signed before the end of 2026, and fighting between the major parties stops with no major flare-ups (>100 deaths) until the later of: the end of 2026, OR one month after it's signed.\n\nTemporary ceasefires that are later broken do not resolve yes.\n\nTemporary ceasefires that followed by a peace treaty do count, even if the treaty is signed after the end of '26, so long as fighting doesn't restart in the interim.\n\nA full agreement before the end of 2026, followed by a new war starting after 2026 still resolves Yes.\n\nNote: this means an agreement signed very late in 2026 must remain in effect for at least one month into 2027 for the market to resolve Yes.\n\nFeel free to ask questions in the comments to clarify remaining ambiguities.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.243324,0.756676],"probability":0.243324,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-06-09T21:24:11.710000Z","end_date":"2027-02-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":24112.730424963134,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.222618103027344,"liquidity":1005.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["Russia","Ukraine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T18:29:23.266749Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-08T18:59:33.974349Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/spider/will-the-russiaukraine-war-end-befo-NN0qZO8E6t","event_title":"Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/OgUy9yu6Zy","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:05:07.041517Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2026?\" — top market at 24% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}