{"source":"manifold","id":"OhS86PAdO9","ticker":"OhS86PAdO9","slug":"who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","title":"Who lands on the Moon next?","description":"If the next person to successfully land on the moon is a Chinese citizen, resolves \"China\"\n\nIf the next person to successfully land on the moon is a US citizen, resolves \"US\"\n\nIf multiple people successfully land on the moon at the same time and they have different citizenship, resolves proportionally to those citizenships:\n\n1) 1 US citizen and 1 Chinese citizen would resolve the market 50% China, 50% US, 0% everything else.\n\n2) 1 dual-citizen of US and Canada, and 2 US citizens, would resolve the market 5/6 US, 1/6 Canada, and 0% for everything else)\n\nThis market will be extended until it can be resolved.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-19T17:17:56.734000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T18:17:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":37401.04895569477,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":41.6201286315918,"liquidity":2000.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["spacex","commercial-spaceflight","moon","rockets","space"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"US","top_outcome_probability":0.54,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-05-31T21:42:58.378196Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-31T21:42:58.378196Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"NAzCQRcOg2","event_id":"OhS86PAdO9","slug":null,"question":"US","group_item_title":"US","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.54,0.46],"probability":0.54,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-19T17:17:56.735000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T18:17:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7208.732597943189,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.62286949157715,"liquidity":353.5533905932738,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:49:24.629953Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:48:16.322747Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","event_title":"Who lands on the Moon next?","chart_24h":[0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.54]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9uqRlnlP8C","event_id":"OhS86PAdO9","slug":null,"question":"China","group_item_title":"China","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.417198,0.582802],"probability":0.417198,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-19T17:17:56.735000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T18:17:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3578.1084709365605,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.136262893676758,"liquidity":353.5533905932738,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["China","United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:49:24.629953Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:48:16.322747Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","event_title":"Who lands on the Moon next?","chart_24h":[0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198,0.417198]},{"source":"manifold","id":"I2UQ8ZUIAI","event_id":"OhS86PAdO9","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.027593,0.972407],"probability":0.027593,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-19T17:17:56.735000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T18:17:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":154.3643591745075,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":9.557514190673828,"liquidity":92.04155055815338,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States","China"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:49:24.629953Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:48:16.322747Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","event_title":"Who lands on the Moon next?","chart_24h":[0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593,0.027593]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZpEuzy58ZU","event_id":"OhS86PAdO9","slug":null,"question":"Canada","group_item_title":"Canada","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.008857,0.991143],"probability":0.008857,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-20T00:43:48.468000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T18:17:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5.627463623533458,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.342686414718628,"liquidity":92.04155055815338,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:49:24.629953Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:48:16.322747Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","event_title":"Who lands on the Moon next?","chart_24h":[0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857,0.008857]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ZOpOONcnUR","event_id":"OhS86PAdO9","slug":null,"question":"India","group_item_title":"India","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.002505,0.997495],"probability":0.002505,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-19T17:20:43.676000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T18:17:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1933.014381513775,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":21.49698257446289,"liquidity":87.68796645802232,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["India"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:49:24.629953Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:48:16.322747Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","event_title":"Who lands on the Moon next?","chart_24h":[0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505,0.002505]},{"source":"manifold","id":"PAg5h9AhIE","event_id":"OhS86PAdO9","slug":null,"question":"Russia","group_item_title":"Russia","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00228,0.99772],"probability":0.00228,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-19T23:22:16.971000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T18:17:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12.251278378671316,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.5067217350006104,"liquidity":96.28877153240818,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:49:24.629953Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:48:16.322747Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","event_title":"Who lands on the Moon next?","chart_24h":[0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228,0.00228]},{"source":"manifold","id":"y2Z5Qu0n9R","event_id":"OhS86PAdO9","slug":null,"question":"United Arab Emirates","group_item_title":"United Arab Emirates","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000633,0.999367],"probability":0.000633,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-19T23:21:35.556000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T18:17:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.1803600788116455,"liquidity":98.78215216755798,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United Arab Emirates"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:49:24.629953Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:48:16.322747Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","event_title":"Who lands on the Moon next?","chart_24h":[0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633,0.000633]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cO2yu02O5h","event_id":"OhS86PAdO9","slug":null,"question":"Japan","group_item_title":"Japan","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000571,0.999429],"probability":0.000571,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-19T23:21:26.191000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T18:17:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1.0,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.1803600788116455,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["Japan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:49:24.629953Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:48:16.322747Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","event_title":"Who lands on the Moon next?","chart_24h":[0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571,0.000571]},{"source":"manifold","id":"LQyOp5huys","event_id":"OhS86PAdO9","slug":null,"question":"South Korea","group_item_title":"South Korea","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.000362,0.999638],"probability":0.000362,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-19T23:21:40.428000Z","end_date":"2035-01-01T18:17:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1.4582408391671606,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":0.3036964237689972,"liquidity":98.15772857343566,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States","China","India"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T13:49:24.629953Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T13:48:16.322747Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/who-lands-the-next-person-on-the-mo","event_title":"Who lands on the Moon next?","chart_24h":[0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362,0.000362]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/OhS86PAdO9","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:08:02.128791Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Who lands on the Moon next?\" — top market at 54% probability across 9 outcomes","source_url":null}}