{"source":"manifold","id":"OyqxrYfpiiOqUPWwdoNm","ticker":null,"slug":"will-russia-militarily-seize-narva","title":"Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?","description":"Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%). \n\n[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.\n\nWill Russia militarily seize Narva before 2030?\n\nSee this question but for other years:\n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva  (this question)\n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-OIptE5cPpP \n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-5L9yU0Uth9 \n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-qdzgI9hyyh \n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-zhpARU9dsL","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/cash%2F4603be763ef5.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-26T07:09:57.909000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":57725.15189584166,"volume_24hr":767.5759184700646,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.643924713134766,"normalized_volume":44.466796875,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.05,"spread":null,"top_outcome":null,"top_outcome_probability":null,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-19T18:52:27.297493Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-19T18:52:27.297493Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/OyqxrYfpiiOqUPWwdoNm","as_of":"2026-09-19T19:16:34.558549Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?\"","source_url":null}}