{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/OyqxrYfpiiOqUPWwdoNm","as_of":"2026-11-03T21:38:30.930853Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?\" — 7% as of 2026-10-28 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/OyqxrYfpiiOqUPWwdoNm","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva"},"source":"manifold","id":"OyqxrYfpiiOqUPWwdoNm","ticker":null,"slug":"will-russia-militarily-seize-narva","title":"Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?","description":"Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%). \n\n[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.\n\nWill Russia militarily seize Narva before 2030?\n\nSee this question but for other years:\n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva  (this question)\n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-OIptE5cPpP \n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-5L9yU0Uth9 \n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-qdzgI9hyyh \n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-zhpARU9dsL","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/cash%2F4603be763ef5.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-26T07:09:57.909000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":58106.62453186053,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.249454498291016,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.071594,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.071594,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-28T22:43:46.064291Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-28T22:43:46.064291Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"OyqxrYfpiiOqUPWwdoNm","event_id":"OyqxrYfpiiOqUPWwdoNm","slug":"will-russia-militarily-seize-narva","question":"Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Narva is a city in Estonia close to the Russian border whose inhabitants are mostly ethnic Russians (87%) who almost all speak Russian (96%) and many of whom even have Russian citizenship (36%). \n\n[image]Some experts believe Russia might militarily seize Narva in a Crimea-style operation to stress test NATO.\n\nWill Russia militarily seize Narva before 2030?\n\nSee this question but for other years:\n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva  (this question)\n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-OIptE5cPpP \n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-5L9yU0Uth9 \n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-qdzgI9hyyh \n\n@/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva-zhpARU9dsL","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/cash%2F4603be763ef5.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.071594,0.928406],"probability":0.071594,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-26T07:09:57.909000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":58106.62453186053,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.249454498291016,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Russia","Estonia"],"updated_at":"2026-10-28T22:40:36.740519Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-28T22:40:36.740519Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/will-russia-militarily-seize-narva","event_title":"Will Russia militarily seize Narva, Estonia before 2030?","chart_24h":null}]}