{"source":"manifold","id":"OzQ98blOASYf60lphBXO","ticker":null,"slug":"will-50-of-all-new-car-sales-in-the","title":"Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?","description":"https://www.forbes.com/sites/rinatorchinsky/2023/10/28/best-and-worst-states-to-buy-an-electric-vehicle/?sh=7c69dc351e03\n\n[link preview]\"The Biden administration is shooting for 50% of all new car sales to be electric vehicles by 2030.\"\n\nHave to do some thinking, but my current perogrative is that we'll need more than a single month of 50% for the question to resolve \"Yes.\" If for two consecutive quarters before 2030 we have > 50% this question will resolve yes. \"if the last month of 2029 is >50% and that trend continues into 2030, the the question will also resolve \"Yes.\"\n\nUpdate: This market will remain with 2030 as the deadline. There are just too many positions to change. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-30T04:19:07.502000Z","end_date":"2030-01-07T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":163363.16428182,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":54.090431213378906,"liquidity":1015.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Business"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.278957,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.278957,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-05T22:48:23.079890Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T22:48:23.079890Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/neweconomicplan/will-50-of-all-new-car-sales-in-the","chart_24h":[0.278957,0.278957],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"OzQ98blOASYf60lphBXO","event_id":"OzQ98blOASYf60lphBXO","slug":"will-50-of-all-new-car-sales-in-the","question":"Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"https://www.forbes.com/sites/rinatorchinsky/2023/10/28/best-and-worst-states-to-buy-an-electric-vehicle/?sh=7c69dc351e03\n\n[link preview]\"The Biden administration is shooting for 50% of all new car sales to be electric vehicles by 2030.\"\n\nHave to do some thinking, but my current perogrative is that we'll need more than a single month of 50% for the question to resolve \"Yes.\" If for two consecutive quarters before 2030 we have > 50% this question will resolve yes. \"if the last month of 2029 is >50% and that trend continues into 2030, the the question will also resolve \"Yes.\"\n\nUpdate: This market will remain with 2030 as the deadline. There are just too many positions to change. ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.278957,0.721043],"probability":0.278957,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-30T04:19:07.502000Z","end_date":"2030-01-07T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":163363.16428182,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":54.090431213378906,"liquidity":1015.0,"categories":["Business"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T21:40:11.569994Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-05T22:46:07.329755Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/neweconomicplan/will-50-of-all-new-car-sales-in-the","event_title":"Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?","chart_24h":[0.278957,0.278957]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/OzQ98blOASYf60lphBXO","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:47:13.076988Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will 50% of all new car sales in the United States be electric by 2030?\" — top market at 28% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}