{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/P505Kqjuc7mJn2B5I6jB","as_of":"2026-10-24T07:01:08.698561Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?\" — 27% as of 2026-10-24 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/P505Kqjuc7mJn2B5I6jB","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again"},"source":"manifold","id":"P505Kqjuc7mJn2B5I6jB","ticker":null,"slug":"will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again","title":"Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?","description":"Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2029.\n\n\nMultiple choice:\n\n@/plsdelete/when-will-humans-set-foot-on-the-mo \n\n@/PlasmaBallin/when-will-the-next-moon-landing-occ \n\n@/lastuserhere/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-th \n\n@/BoltonBailey/in-which-year-will-humans-next-walk \n\n@/bitSanjay/what-year-will-spacex-land-on-the-m \n\n@/predyx_markets/when-will-spacex-land-on-the-moon \n\n<2025:\n\n@/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th \n\n@/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-97aac7e1ff3b \n\n@/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-97ccfb75fd6d \n\n‌ \n\n<2026: \n\n@/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land@/BoltonBailey/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon@/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45@/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human\n@/Jack_Rose/will-a-country-put-another-flag-on \n\n@/JohnChristou/will-nasa-and-spacex-succeed-with-i ‌\n\n@/BillMotz/will-nasas-artemis-program-land-ast \n\n@/WillUrbanski/will-a-manned-mission-successfully \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2461b12d959d \n\n<2027:\n\n@/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l-7fdd8a8e8033 \n\n@/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the \n\n@/ChadwickMiller/will-astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-be \n\n@/theok/will-nasa-land-on-the-moon-by-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-7178da6928ae \n\n<2028:\n\n@/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20@/jack/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-befor \n\n@/calderknight/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023-x \n\n@/predyx_markets/will-spacex-land-on-the-moon-by-202 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-5dd99d5a1e48 \n\n<2029:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again@/predyx_markets/will-spacex-land-on-the-moon-by-202-66e3082483e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-7e6517a06d7e \n\n<2030:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb@/predyx_markets/will-spacex-land-on-the-moon-by-202-f1c55d0c835c \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-fa1926d83aec \n\n2030 or later:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-6204f804eafd \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6 \n\n@/GavinKovite/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-betwe \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-8dae5a22f504 \n\n\nSee also:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun \n\n@/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882 \n\nArtemis 2 timeline: @/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026 ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FlHC_zKilQl.png?alt=media&token=bb068b54-0509-4021-a732-7a487cd9c734","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-09T14:06:21.745000Z","end_date":"2028-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":51034.45948000234,"volume_24hr":50.02317706537145,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.0213041305542,"normalized_volume":43.2221565246582,"liquidity":1710.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["space","artemis-3","artemis-program"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.27,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?","top_outcome_probability":0.27,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:54:03.204626Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:54:03.204626Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again","chart_24h":[0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27],"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"P505Kqjuc7mJn2B5I6jB","event_id":"P505Kqjuc7mJn2B5I6jB","slug":"will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again","question":"Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if a human sets foot on the moon after 2000 but before 2029.\n\n\nMultiple choice:\n\n@/plsdelete/when-will-humans-set-foot-on-the-mo \n\n@/PlasmaBallin/when-will-the-next-moon-landing-occ \n\n@/lastuserhere/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-th \n\n@/BoltonBailey/in-which-year-will-humans-next-walk \n\n@/bitSanjay/what-year-will-spacex-land-on-the-m \n\n@/predyx_markets/when-will-spacex-land-on-the-moon \n\n<2025:\n\n@/levifinkelstein/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-by-th \n\n@/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-97aac7e1ff3b \n\n@/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-97ccfb75fd6d \n\n‌ \n\n<2026: \n\n@/Treldman/will-there-be-a-new-human-moon-land@/BoltonBailey/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon@/AmmonLam/will-nasa-land-a-person-on-the-moon-f11b40742c45@/wadimiusz/by-the-start-of-2026-will-any-human\n@/Jack_Rose/will-a-country-put-another-flag-on \n\n@/JohnChristou/will-nasa-and-spacex-succeed-with-i ‌\n\n@/BillMotz/will-nasas-artemis-program-land-ast \n\n@/WillUrbanski/will-a-manned-mission-successfully \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2461b12d959d \n\n<2027:\n\n@/TobiasSowaaed/will-a-human-mission-successfully-l-7fdd8a8e8033 \n\n@/Odoacre/will-a-human-astronaut-land-on-the \n\n@/ChadwickMiller/will-astronauts-walk-on-the-moon-be \n\n@/theok/will-nasa-land-on-the-moon-by-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-7178da6928ae \n\n<2028:\n\n@/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20@/jack/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-befor \n\n@/calderknight/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023-x \n\n@/predyx_markets/will-spacex-land-on-the-moon-by-202 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-5dd99d5a1e48 \n\n<2029:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again@/predyx_markets/will-spacex-land-on-the-moon-by-202-66e3082483e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-7e6517a06d7e \n\n<2030:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2fc067c3b7fb@/predyx_markets/will-spacex-land-on-the-moon-by-202-f1c55d0c835c \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-fa1926d83aec \n\n2030 or later:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-6204f804eafd \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-1be18a6d77f6 \n\n@/GavinKovite/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-betwe \n\n@/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-8dae5a22f504 \n\n\nSee also:\n\n@/Mqrius/will-spacexs-hls-uncrewed-demo-laun \n\n@/Mqrius/will-two-starships-dock-in-orbit-be-4762f93e6882 \n\nArtemis 2 timeline: @/Mqrius/will-artemis-ii-launch-before-2026 ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FlHC_zKilQl.png?alt=media&token=bb068b54-0509-4021-a732-7a487cd9c734","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.27,0.73],"probability":0.27,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-04-09T14:06:21.745000Z","end_date":"2028-12-31T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":51034.45948000234,"volume_24hr":50.02317706537145,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":14.0213041305542,"normalized_volume":43.2221565246582,"liquidity":1710.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-24T06:53:37.911273Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-24T06:53:37.911273Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Mqrius/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again","event_title":"Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?","chart_24h":[0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27]}]}