{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/PA82zcLszd","as_of":"2026-11-14T00:57:14.260415Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13, 2026?\" — \"Software bug, failed update, configuration or operator error (no attacker, no AI)\" leads at 83% across 9 outcomes as of 2026-11-14 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/PA82zcLszd","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/stuhlmueller/what-caused-the-faas-nationwide-gro"},"source":"manifold","id":"PA82zcLszd","ticker":"PA82zcLszd","slug":"what-caused-the-faas-nationwide-gro","title":"What caused the FAA's nationwide ground stop on November 13, 2026?","description":"On Friday, November 13, 2026, the FAA ordered a ground stop for all US airports, citing \"extraordinary circumstances\". Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy attributed it to \"a communication issue impacting all Air Route Traffic Control Centers\". When this market opened, officials had given no root cause, and CNN cited two law enforcement officials saying preliminary reports indicated it was not a cyberattack.\n\nResolution\n\nResolves to the one answer that best describes the root cause of the communications failure behind the ground stop, as publicly established by December 31, 2026 (Pacific time).\n\nWhat counts as established: statements or reports from the FAA, DOT, DHS or CISA, the FBI, the NTSB, the White House or the DOT inspector general, or reporting by a major outlet (Reuters, AP, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, Bloomberg or similar) that investigators reached a finding. Speculation, early anonymous impressions and claims of responsibility do not count on their own. If official statements and reporting on investigators' findings conflict, I will go with the better-supported account.\n\nIf several things went wrong, the answer is the initiating cause. A cyberattack that knocked out equipment resolves as a cyberattack. A bad software update at a telecom contractor resolves as a software bug.\n\nAnswers\n\nCyberattack in which AI materially enabled or carried out the attack. Malicious cyber activity where officials or investigators find that AI did substantial work in the attack, for example finding or exploiting the vulnerability, writing the malware, or running the intrusion autonomously.\n\nCyberattack with no AI role established. Any other malicious cyber activity, including by a malicious insider. This is also the answer when a cyberattack is established and AI involvement is only speculated.\n\nPhysical sabotage or physical attack. Deliberate damage or interference that is not cyber: cut cables, arson, radio jamming.\n\nAI system malfunction or AI agent error (no attacker). For example an AI traffic-management tool misbehaving, or an AI agent making a bad change to production systems. This takes precedence over the software answer.\n\nSoftware bug, failed update, configuration or operator error. Non-malicious, at the FAA or a contractor, with no AI system at fault.\n\nHardware, power or cable failure, or accidental physical damage. Failed equipment, power loss, an accidental fiber cut, a fire.\n\nNatural event. Space weather, severe weather, an earthquake.\n\nOther established cause. A cause that meets the evidence bar and fits none of the above.\n\nNo root cause publicly established by Dec 31, 2026. Nothing meets the evidence bar, including when officials say only \"technical issue\" or \"communication issue\" without saying what caused it.\n\nIf officials rule out an attack but do not say enough to choose between the non-attack answers, I will split the resolution evenly among the non-attack answers that fit their account.\n\nI may resolve before the close date if a final official finding is published and nothing credible disputes it for two weeks.\n\nRelated markets: confirmed as an AI hack by Nov 16?, result of a cyberattack?, how long will it last?","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-11-13T21:57:27.117000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":29974.404889012156,"volume_24hr":37114.91494075533,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":98.51812744140625,"normalized_volume":39.03315734863281,"liquidity":3500.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["World","Science and 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