{"source":"manifold","id":"PCI956hsth","ticker":null,"slug":"will-something-happen-in-2026","title":"Will something happen in 2026?","description":"This market resolves YES if any one thing from the listed things happens in 2026\n\nLeader Exits\n\nDonald Trump leaves office before end of 2026 (death, resignation, impeachment, removal, etc.)\n\nVladimir Putin leaves office\n\nXi Jinping leaves office\n\nGeopolitical & Unexpected Events\n\nChina invades or blockades Taiwan\n\nEnemy troops on American soil (invasion or combat operations)\n\nUSA men's team wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup\n\nBitcoin reaches $1,000,000 USD\n\nOpenAI officially claims AGI achieved internally\n\nNew major pandemic causes widespread flight cancellations (at least 100 international flights canceled)\n\nNuclear bomb detonation above ground\n\nTaylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly break up or divorce\n\nQuantum computing breakthrough (\"Q-Day\") cracks major encryption, causing widespread crypto/market panic\n\nS&P 500 drops >40% from its 2025 peak\n\nSam Altman is out as OpenAI CEO for more than three weeks\n\nWashington, D.C. officially becomes the 51st state\n\nAI directly causes one of the following:\n\nDeath(s) of human(s) (unrelated to suicide encouragement)\n\nDiscovers and exploits a zero-day vulnerability without human prompting, causing ≥$100M USD worldwide damages\n\nSolves an unsolved mathematics problem listed on Wikipedia (problem must have its own wiki page)\n\nCelebrity Deaths \n\nMrBeast\n\nTaylor Swift\n\nTimothée Chalamet\n\nZendaya\n\nBillie Eilish\n\nLionel Messi\n\nCristiano Ronaldo\n\nTravis Kelce\n\nKanye West\n\nPope Leo XIV\n\nMajor US Tragedies\n\nMass shooting or terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in a single US state in one day\n\nMass casualty accident (e.g., plane, train, infrastructure) causes >1,000 deaths in a single US state\n\nNatural disaster causes >20,000 deaths in a single US state\n\nPolitics & Supreme Court \n\nSCOTUS upholds Trump's executive order limiting or ending birthright citizenship\n\nOne party wins 75 or more seats in the U.S. Senate after 2026 midterms\n\nA Canadian province formally votes to secede or join the United States\n\n~~~~I do not respect AI sloppa updates below this line\n\nUpdate 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding \"AI directly causes death(s) of human(s)\" criterion:\n\nAI telling someone to commit murder does NOT count as AI directly causing death\n\nAutonomous car deaths are excluded (too common, not a black swan event)\n\nIntentional AI drone killings do NOT count\n\nAI drone mistakes/accidents do NOT count\n\nDOES count: AI system autonomously acting against operator control to directly kill (example given: consumer drone gets AI upgrade, refuses operator controls, and autonomously attacks a human)\n\nUpdate 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only events specifically listed in the description will count for resolution. Other unexpected events, even if comparable in significance, will not resolve this market YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-14T18:21:05.194000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12794.281941025316,"volume_24hr":9444.569678784059,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":85.5867919921875,"normalized_volume":33.536781311035156,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.872786,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will something happen in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.872786,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.02141699999999991,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":8113.0686347506235,"updated_at":"2026-07-23T02:49:40.359295Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-23T02:49:40.359295Z","added_at":"2026-07-22T14:59:14.424107Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-something-happen-in-2026","chart_24h":[0.851369,0.850763,0.878395,0.903361,0.903361,0.826391,0.808769,0.892381,0.898428,0.8991,0.899403,0.899403,0.893699,0.872786],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"PCI956hsth","event_id":"PCI956hsth","slug":"will-something-happen-in-2026","question":"Will something happen in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves YES if any one thing from the listed things happens in 2026\n\nLeader Exits\n\nDonald Trump leaves office before end of 2026 (death, resignation, impeachment, removal, etc.)\n\nVladimir Putin leaves office\n\nXi Jinping leaves office\n\nGeopolitical & Unexpected Events\n\nChina invades or blockades Taiwan\n\nEnemy troops on American soil (invasion or combat operations)\n\nUSA men's team wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup\n\nBitcoin reaches $1,000,000 USD\n\nOpenAI officially claims AGI achieved internally\n\nNew major pandemic causes widespread flight cancellations (at least 100 international flights canceled)\n\nNuclear bomb detonation above ground\n\nTaylor Swift and Travis Kelce publicly break up or divorce\n\nQuantum computing breakthrough (\"Q-Day\") cracks major encryption, causing widespread crypto/market panic\n\nS&P 500 drops >40% from its 2025 peak\n\nSam Altman is out as OpenAI CEO for more than three weeks\n\nWashington, D.C. officially becomes the 51st state\n\nAI directly causes one of the following:\n\nDeath(s) of human(s) (unrelated to suicide encouragement)\n\nDiscovers and exploits a zero-day vulnerability without human prompting, causing ≥$100M USD worldwide damages\n\nSolves an unsolved mathematics problem listed on Wikipedia (problem must have its own wiki page)\n\nCelebrity Deaths \n\nMrBeast\n\nTaylor Swift\n\nTimothée Chalamet\n\nZendaya\n\nBillie Eilish\n\nLionel Messi\n\nCristiano Ronaldo\n\nTravis Kelce\n\nKanye West\n\nPope Leo XIV\n\nMajor US Tragedies\n\nMass shooting or terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in a single US state in one day\n\nMass casualty accident (e.g., plane, train, infrastructure) causes >1,000 deaths in a single US state\n\nNatural disaster causes >20,000 deaths in a single US state\n\nPolitics & Supreme Court \n\nSCOTUS upholds Trump's executive order limiting or ending birthright citizenship\n\nOne party wins 75 or more seats in the U.S. Senate after 2026 midterms\n\nA Canadian province formally votes to secede or join the United States\n\n~~~~I do not respect AI sloppa updates below this line\n\nUpdate 2025-12-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding \"AI directly causes death(s) of human(s)\" criterion:\n\nAI telling someone to commit murder does NOT count as AI directly causing death\n\nAutonomous car deaths are excluded (too common, not a black swan event)\n\nIntentional AI drone killings do NOT count\n\nAI drone mistakes/accidents do NOT count\n\nDOES count: AI system autonomously acting against operator control to directly kill (example given: consumer drone gets AI upgrade, refuses operator controls, and autonomously attacks a human)\n\nUpdate 2026-02-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Only events specifically listed in the description will count for resolution. Other unexpected events, even if comparable in significance, will not resolve this market YES.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.872786,0.127214],"probability":0.872786,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-12-14T18:21:05.194000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12794.281941025316,"volume_24hr":9444.569678784059,"prob_24h_change":0.02141699999999991,"volume_24h_change":8113.0686347506235,"normalized_vol_24hr":85.5867919921875,"normalized_volume":33.536781311035156,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-23T02:49:58.857912Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-23T02:49:00.017061Z","added_at":"2026-07-22T14:59:14.424107Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bandors/will-something-happen-in-2026","event_title":"Will something happen in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.851369,0.850763,0.878395,0.903361,0.903361,0.826391,0.808769,0.892381,0.898428,0.8991,0.899403,0.899403,0.893699,0.872786]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/PCI956hsth","as_of":"2026-07-23T03:00:42.689895Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will something happen in 2026?\" — top market at 87% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}