{"source":"manifold","id":"PJq3Sm4jFPckcXPAVTbt","ticker":null,"slug":"by-2030-will-llms-have-a-bigger-imp","title":"By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?","description":"Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856. Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no. So, market, obviously. \n\nResolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise. \n\nIf the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert.  \n\nIf the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early. \n\n(GLP-1 receptors are those used by Ozempic and other similar weight loss drugs.)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-03T12:05:22.317000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3395.6003930985744,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.490665435791016,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.903569,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?","top_outcome_probability":0.903569,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/by-2030-will-llms-have-a-bigger-imp","chart_24h":[0.903569,0.903569],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"PJq3Sm4jFPckcXPAVTbt","event_id":"PJq3Sm4jFPckcXPAVTbt","slug":"by-2030-will-llms-have-a-bigger-imp","question":"By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856. Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no. So, market, obviously. \n\nResolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise. \n\nIf the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert.  \n\nIf the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early. \n\n(GLP-1 receptors are those used by Ozempic and other similar weight loss drugs.)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.903569,0.096431],"probability":0.903569,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-03T12:05:22.317000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3395.6003930985744,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":24.490665435791016,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Economy"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-25T04:10:13.536431Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/by-2030-will-llms-have-a-bigger-imp","event_title":"By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?","chart_24h":[0.903569,0.903569]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/PJq3Sm4jFPckcXPAVTbt","as_of":"2026-08-25T08:13:33.685028Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?\" — top market at 90% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}