{"source":"manifold","id":"PMzQkw78fqNVlo3baV5F","ticker":null,"slug":"before-2050-will-it-become-safe-and","title":"Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?","description":"\"Apparent sex\" here includes voice timbre, facial appearance, body shape, and genitals. It does not include reproductive system, DNA, hormornes, or qualia. The procedure needs to be good enough that a stranger can't tell someone has undergone the procedure just by looking at them.\n\n\"Easy\" means it's not significantly more prohibitive for the middle class than other big life changes such as moving, getting a new job, etc.\n\nIn order for this to resolve YES, there must be many people who are not super-wealthy and have changed their sex back and forth several times, being largely indistiguishable from people born as that sex each time.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FbIPQXkIWpF.png?alt=media&token=c32b4e0d-c6c2-4345-b22f-ad473483547d","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-15T20:54:15.072000Z","end_date":"2050-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7187.248952733156,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.603132247924805,"liquidity":1010.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture","Health"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.4,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?","top_outcome_probability":0.4,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2050-will-it-become-safe-and","chart_24h":[0.4,0.4],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"PMzQkw78fqNVlo3baV5F","event_id":"PMzQkw78fqNVlo3baV5F","slug":"before-2050-will-it-become-safe-and","question":"Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?","group_item_title":null,"description":"\"Apparent sex\" here includes voice timbre, facial appearance, body shape, and genitals. It does not include reproductive system, DNA, hormornes, or qualia. The procedure needs to be good enough that a stranger can't tell someone has undergone the procedure just by looking at them.\n\n\"Easy\" means it's not significantly more prohibitive for the middle class than other big life changes such as moving, getting a new job, etc.\n\nIn order for this to resolve YES, there must be many people who are not super-wealthy and have changed their sex back and forth several times, being largely indistiguishable from people born as that sex each time.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FbIPQXkIWpF.png?alt=media&token=c32b4e0d-c6c2-4345-b22f-ad473483547d","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.4,0.6],"probability":0.4,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-15T20:54:15.072000Z","end_date":"2050-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7187.248952733156,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.603132247924805,"liquidity":1010.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Culture","Health"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2050-will-it-become-safe-and","event_title":"Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?","chart_24h":[0.4,0.4]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/PMzQkw78fqNVlo3baV5F","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:49:25.783609Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?\" — top market at 40% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}