{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/PdeCL33DKztXnKmFHW7T","as_of":"2026-10-24T06:09:56.119141Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Elon Musk be the first human to walk on Mars?\" — 4% as of 2026-10-16 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/PdeCL33DKztXnKmFHW7T","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person"},"source":"manifold","id":"PdeCL33DKztXnKmFHW7T","ticker":null,"slug":"will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person","title":"Will Elon Musk be the first human to walk on Mars?","description":"If he is the member of a crew of people who touch down at the same time, this still resolves YES\n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-alive-on-the-day \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-the-first-person-to-walk-on-ma-112ceb82478e ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-24T19:31:02.499000Z","end_date":"2071-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7865.431171824611,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.59684944152832,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["elon-musk-14d9d9498c7e","space","space-exploration","mars","spacex","billionaires","celebrities","science-default","technology-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.036558,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Elon Musk be the first human to walk on Mars?","top_outcome_probability":0.036558,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-16T14:10:29.574926Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-16T14:10:29.574926Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"PdeCL33DKztXnKmFHW7T","event_id":"PdeCL33DKztXnKmFHW7T","slug":"will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person","question":"Will Elon Musk be the first human to walk on Mars?","group_item_title":null,"description":"If he is the member of a crew of people who touch down at the same time, this still resolves YES\n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-ever-walk-on-mars \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-alive-on-the-day \n\nSee: @/strutheo/will-the-first-person-to-walk-on-ma-112ceb82478e ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.036558,0.963442],"probability":0.036558,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-24T19:31:02.499000Z","end_date":"2071-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":7865.431171824611,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.59684944152832,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-16T14:10:12.447684Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-16T14:10:12.447684Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/strutheo/will-elon-musk-be-the-first-person","event_title":"Will Elon Musk be the first human to walk on Mars?","chart_24h":null}]}