{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Q28w2lvVywmgspwB0391","as_of":"2026-10-24T08:56:37.771015Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?\" — 45% as of 2026-10-22 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Q28w2lvVywmgspwB0391","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-trump-becomes-the-next-us-presid"},"source":"manifold","id":"Q28w2lvVywmgspwB0391","ticker":null,"slug":"if-trump-becomes-the-next-us-presid","title":"Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?","description":"The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.\n\nResolves based on my own judgement of what counts as \"a serious attempt\". I won't bet.\n\n(The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count under this criterion. Seeking a third term, even if the election itself was fair, would also count.)\n\nResolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.\n\nNote: This is about Trump specifically, not Republicans in general. A coup to put JD Vance in power would not count unless he's there to be a puppet of Trump.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/IsaacKing%2F25bee0bb3339.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-22T19:34:22.344000Z","end_date":"2029-01-07T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":14019.111440150518,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.533058166503906,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.449277,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?","top_outcome_probability":0.449277,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-22T14:46:03.294881Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T14:46:03.294881Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-trump-becomes-the-next-us-presid","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"Q28w2lvVywmgspwB0391","event_id":"Q28w2lvVywmgspwB0391","slug":"if-trump-becomes-the-next-us-presid","question":"Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The attempt does not have to be successful, but it needs to involve some effort and political capital; not just a throwaway comment here and there.\n\nResolves based on my own judgement of what counts as \"a serious attempt\". I won't bet.\n\n(The January 6th shenanigans and constant accusations of voter fraud last time were severe enough to count under this criterion. Seeking a third term, even if the election itself was fair, would also count.)\n\nResolves N/A if he dies before the last year of his term, and he has not already done something that would qualify.\n\nNote: This is about Trump specifically, not Republicans in general. A coup to put JD Vance in power would not count unless he's there to be a puppet of Trump.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/IsaacKing%2F25bee0bb3339.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.449277,0.550723],"probability":0.449277,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-22T19:34:22.344000Z","end_date":"2029-01-07T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":14019.111440150518,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.533058166503906,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-10-22T14:45:18.842933Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-22T14:45:18.842933Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-trump-becomes-the-next-us-presid","event_title":"Will Trump make a serious attempt to remain in power after his term?","chart_24h":null}]}