{"source":"manifold","id":"Q2aaTgdneogOvRadHniw","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-find-strong-evidence-for-ex","title":"Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?","description":"The life doesn't need to be intelligent to count. Can be microbes on Mars or some exoplanet. I define strong evidence for this market to mean that a majority of scientists would agree that it's aliens and not something else (note: not consensus, just majority). The reason I'm setting this standard is that I don't think it will be realistic to find conclusive, incontroversial evidence.\n\nSome examples for what counts as strong evidence:\n\nBiosignatures on an exoplanet, once the studies showing them have been replicated, confirmed, and accepted by the scientific community.\n\nSimilar level of evidence inside the solar system. A confident announcement by NASA can also count, as long as it's not \"maybe we found aliens\" but rather \"we are confident that we found aliens\"\n\nUFO evidence that has been shown to have intelligent extraterristrial origin (just being unknown is not enough), well-studied and accepted by scientists.\n\nWhat doesn't count:\n\nSome study showing what might be a biosignature on another planet\n\nNASA saying that they found something that might be associated with life on Mars or another planet.\n\nUFOs that are confirmed by the US government, but there's no significant positive evidence that it is, in fact, aliens\n\nMexican aliens, unless there's some very significant new evidence released.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-09-14T17:32:05.289000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25554.43520055296,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.66233444213867,"liquidity":2000.25,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.12,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.12,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-07T21:27:52.995811Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T21:27:52.995811Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-we-find-strong-evidence-for-ex","chart_24h":[0.12,0.12],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"Q2aaTgdneogOvRadHniw","event_id":"Q2aaTgdneogOvRadHniw","slug":"will-we-find-strong-evidence-for-ex","question":"Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"The life doesn't need to be intelligent to count. Can be microbes on Mars or some exoplanet. I define strong evidence for this market to mean that a majority of scientists would agree that it's aliens and not something else (note: not consensus, just majority). The reason I'm setting this standard is that I don't think it will be realistic to find conclusive, incontroversial evidence.\n\nSome examples for what counts as strong evidence:\n\nBiosignatures on an exoplanet, once the studies showing them have been replicated, confirmed, and accepted by the scientific community.\n\nSimilar level of evidence inside the solar system. A confident announcement by NASA can also count, as long as it's not \"maybe we found aliens\" but rather \"we are confident that we found aliens\"\n\nUFO evidence that has been shown to have intelligent extraterristrial origin (just being unknown is not enough), well-studied and accepted by scientists.\n\nWhat doesn't count:\n\nSome study showing what might be a biosignature on another planet\n\nNASA saying that they found something that might be associated with life on Mars or another planet.\n\nUFOs that are confirmed by the US government, but there's no significant positive evidence that it is, in fact, aliens\n\nMexican aliens, unless there's some very significant new evidence released.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.12,0.88],"probability":0.12,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-09-14T17:32:05.289000Z","end_date":"2031-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":25554.43520055296,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.66233444213867,"liquidity":2000.25,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T00:03:11.907166Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T21:25:16.210812Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/Shump/will-we-find-strong-evidence-for-ex","event_title":"Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?","chart_24h":[0.12,0.12]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Q2aaTgdneogOvRadHniw","as_of":"2026-06-10T18:02:01.140526Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we find strong evidence for extraterrestrial life by 2030?\" — top market at 12% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}