{"source":"manifold","id":"QFmkYY3sJVgVjC4wimQW","ticker":null,"slug":"if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s","title":"If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?","description":"Ukraine has shown how challenging it can be for a larger power to take over a smaller one that really doesn't want to be taken over and has the support of the West. Will the same thing happen to Taiwan?\n\nResolves YES if Taiwan becomes unambiguously a part of China due to forceful takeover by China. Resolves NO if Chinia attempts to invade Taiwan and is rebuffed. Resolves N/A if China or Taiwan stop existing in their current forms. (Other than Taiwan being incorperated into China by force. If Taiwan votes to join China voluntarily, resolves N/A.)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FO7I8pwO9Ir.png?alt=media&token=063871e0-3278-4ee7-8d37-97d13bc559fa","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-12T02:34:20.927000Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":98583.24417822158,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":49.63447189331055,"liquidity":1920.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.718486,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?","top_outcome_probability":0.718486,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s","chart_24h":[0.718486,0.718486],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"QFmkYY3sJVgVjC4wimQW","event_id":"QFmkYY3sJVgVjC4wimQW","slug":"if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s","question":"If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Ukraine has shown how challenging it can be for a larger power to take over a smaller one that really doesn't want to be taken over and has the support of the West. Will the same thing happen to Taiwan?\n\nResolves YES if Taiwan becomes unambiguously a part of China due to forceful takeover by China. Resolves NO if Chinia attempts to invade Taiwan and is rebuffed. Resolves N/A if China or Taiwan stop existing in their current forms. (Other than Taiwan being incorperated into China by force. If Taiwan votes to join China voluntarily, resolves N/A.)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FO7I8pwO9Ir.png?alt=media&token=063871e0-3278-4ee7-8d37-97d13bc559fa","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.718486,0.281514],"probability":0.718486,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-11-12T02:34:20.927000Z","end_date":"2100-01-01T05:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":98583.24417822158,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":49.63447189331055,"liquidity":1920.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-27T18:51:10.372434Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s","event_title":"If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?","chart_24h":[0.718486,0.718486]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/QFmkYY3sJVgVjC4wimQW","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:14:34.298553Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"If China invades Taiwan, will they succeed?\" — top market at 72% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}