{"source":"manifold","id":"QVPb8yrukyYnTMDyXxTo","ticker":null,"slug":"will-israel-win-the-2023-israelhama","title":"Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?","description":"This market will resolve YES if and when the English Wikipedia's page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox \"Result: Israeli victory\" (or equivalent), and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.\n\nIt will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Israel is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Hamas or some coalition of which Hamas is a part.\n\nAny other \"result\" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as \"ongoing\" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like \"Partial Israeli victory\" or \"Israeli victory with territorial losses\".\n\nNote specifically that if there is a frozen conflict that causes Wikipedia to update the infobox from \"ongoing\" to \"inconclusive\" or similar, this would be a NO resolution.\n\nResolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the \"result\" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the \"result\" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.\n\nThe closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-29T04:32:29.957000Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":39519.988316998664,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":42.0571403503418,"liquidity":1020.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.178457,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?","top_outcome_probability":0.178457,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-israel-win-the-2023-israelhama","chart_24h":[0.178457,0.178457],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"QVPb8yrukyYnTMDyXxTo","event_id":"QVPb8yrukyYnTMDyXxTo","slug":"will-israel-win-the-2023-israelhama","question":"Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market will resolve YES if and when the English Wikipedia's page on the 2023 Israel–Hamas war (or the nearest equivalent if that page no longer exists) lists in its infobox \"Result: Israeli victory\" (or equivalent), and I am satisfied that this is not part of an edit war.\n\nIt will also resolve YES if the result describes the victor as some coalition of which Israel is a part, or describes the outcome in terms of the defeated side being Hamas or some coalition of which Hamas is a part.\n\nAny other \"result\" after the war is no longer described by Wikipedia as \"ongoing\" will cause the market to resolve NO, including hedged statements like \"Partial Israeli victory\" or \"Israeli victory with territorial losses\".\n\nNote specifically that if there is a frozen conflict that causes Wikipedia to update the infobox from \"ongoing\" to \"inconclusive\" or similar, this would be a NO resolution.\n\nResolution only depends on the first, non-dotpoint statement in the \"result\" section of the infobox. If hedging/concessions follow the intitial statement as dotpoints, or if they appear in the body of the article, this is not relevant to resolution. If the \"result\" comprises only dotpoints, the market will resolve NO.\n\nThe closing date for this market will be extended as needed until the market can resolve.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.178457,0.821543],"probability":0.178457,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-10-29T04:32:29.957000Z","end_date":"2027-01-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":39519.988316998664,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":42.0571403503418,"liquidity":1020.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Israel","Palestine"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T09:36:25.491276Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T21:46:25.949685Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/will-israel-win-the-2023-israelhama","event_title":"Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?","chart_24h":[0.178457,0.178457]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/QVPb8yrukyYnTMDyXxTo","as_of":"2026-06-10T11:39:48.537643Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Israel win the 2023 Israel–Hamas war?\" — top market at 18% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}