{"source":"manifold","id":"QWmbkD4LuMIoSQ6E7MEO","ticker":null,"slug":"will-iran-acquire-nuclear-weapons-b","title":"Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?","description":"Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iran has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031. This device must be under the sovereign control of the Iranian State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.\n\nDifferent countries:\n\n@/RemNi/will-japan-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n\n@/RemNi/will-australia-acquire-nuclear-weap \n\n@/RemNi/will-south-korea-acquire-nuclear-we \n\n@/RemNi/will-germany-acquire-nuclear-weapon \n\n@/RemNi/will-taiwan-acquire-nuclear-weapons-091895b8e730 \n\n@/RemNi/will-vietnam-acquire-nuclear-weapon \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-acquire-nuclear-weapons-b (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-saudi-arabia-acquire-nuclear-w \n\n@/RemNi/will-turkey-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n\n@/RemNi/will-sweden-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n@/RemNi/will-indonesia-acquire-nuclear-weap \n\n@/RemNi/will-brazil-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n\n@/RemNi/will-nigeria-acquire-nuclear-weapon \n\n@/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n\n@/RemNi/will-poland-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n\n@/RemNi/will-belarus-acquire-nuclear-weapon ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FHxeifoZc0i.png?alt=media&token=f0e418eb-06ce-4964-b86a-48bf456c13ef","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-09T14:06:42.544000Z","end_date":"2031-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11660.051759188222,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.916385650634766,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":["nuclear-proliferation","iran","nuclear-weapons"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.309394,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?","top_outcome_probability":0.309394,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-iran-acquire-nuclear-weapons-b","chart_24h":[0.309394,0.309394],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"QWmbkD4LuMIoSQ6E7MEO","event_id":"QWmbkD4LuMIoSQ6E7MEO","slug":"will-iran-acquire-nuclear-weapons-b","question":"Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iran has acquired at least one nuclear weapon before January 1st 2031. This device must be under the sovereign control of the Iranian State, and they must have the ability to use it independently.\n\nDifferent countries:\n\n@/RemNi/will-japan-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n\n@/RemNi/will-australia-acquire-nuclear-weap \n\n@/RemNi/will-south-korea-acquire-nuclear-we \n\n@/RemNi/will-germany-acquire-nuclear-weapon \n\n@/RemNi/will-taiwan-acquire-nuclear-weapons-091895b8e730 \n\n@/RemNi/will-vietnam-acquire-nuclear-weapon \n\n@/RemNi/will-iran-acquire-nuclear-weapons-b (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-saudi-arabia-acquire-nuclear-w \n\n@/RemNi/will-turkey-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n\n@/RemNi/will-sweden-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n@/RemNi/will-indonesia-acquire-nuclear-weap \n\n@/RemNi/will-brazil-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n\n@/RemNi/will-nigeria-acquire-nuclear-weapon \n\n@/RemNi/will-nauru-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n\n@/RemNi/will-poland-acquire-nuclear-weapons \n\n@/RemNi/will-belarus-acquire-nuclear-weapon ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FHxeifoZc0i.png?alt=media&token=f0e418eb-06ce-4964-b86a-48bf456c13ef","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.309394,0.690606],"probability":0.309394,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-09T14:06:42.544000Z","end_date":"2031-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":11660.051759188222,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":32.916385650634766,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-06T08:47:30.200556Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-iran-acquire-nuclear-weapons-b","event_title":"Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?","chart_24h":[0.309394,0.309394]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/QWmbkD4LuMIoSQ6E7MEO","as_of":"2026-06-10T14:13:55.888087Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Iran acquire nuclear weapons before 2031?\" — top market at 31% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}