{"source":"manifold","id":"QdhyScACtC","ticker":"QdhyScACtC","slug":"who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","description":"[image]Resolves upon announcement by Trump or his Admin, resolution does not require they actually begin work on the job. If Trump announces multiple individuals to co-lead the role, the market will resolve proportionally among those named. If no official announcement is made by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to \"No one by end of 2026\". The primary sources of truth will be official White House statements, Donald Trump's verified Truth Social posts, or consensus reporting from major news outlets (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, Bloomberg, The New York Times).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.242000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":12997.994929618251,"volume_24hr":10960.313073948464,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":83.58309173583984,"normalized_volume":33.195640563964844,"liquidity":6900.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"tags":["donald-trump","us-politics","ai","trumps-second-term","politics-default"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Other","top_outcome_probability":0.580422,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.046174999999999966,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":366.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.579697Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.579697Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:37.992103Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","chart_24h":[10312.313073948464,10428.313073948464,10488.313073948464,10510.313073948464],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"nOyylh26pc","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Other","group_item_title":"Other","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.580422,0.419578],"probability":0.580422,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2119.99345119319,"volume_24hr":416.0,"prob_24h_change":0.046174999999999966,"volume_24h_change":366.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":44.472129821777344,"normalized_volume":21.704851150512695,"liquidity":804.6572512616417,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:10.869221Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.534247,0.546571,0.531367,0.583409]},{"source":"manifold","id":"EshS66zZnp","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"No one by end of 2026","group_item_title":"No one by end of 2026","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.156403,0.843597],"probability":0.156403,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":385.0,"volume_24hr":160.0,"prob_24h_change":0.04809299999999998,"volume_24h_change":100.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":31.548330307006836,"normalized_volume":13.122777938842773,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:10.869221Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.10831,0.105676,0.133475,0.157362]},{"source":"manifold","id":"9yZEggN0hN","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Sriram Krishnan","group_item_title":"Sriram Krishnan","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.044638,0.955362],"probability":0.044638,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":344.1186447860685,"volume_24hr":1.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.017165,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.5870293378829956,"normalized_volume":12.634089469909668,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:10.869221Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.061803,0.059937,0.058521,0.044907]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5AdczA0Enz","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"J.D. Vance","group_item_title":"J.D. Vance","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.012212,0.987788],"probability":0.012212,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8.0,"volume_24hr":1.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.002269,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":0.5870293378829956,"normalized_volume":1.7860311269760132,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:10.869221Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.014481,0.014232,0.014308,0.012256]},{"source":"manifold","id":"P6yquyuSNg","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Sam Altman","group_item_title":"Sam Altman","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01086,0.98914],"probability":0.01086,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-20T09:29:31.391000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":392.97798618798316,"volume_24hr":5.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.015529,"volume_24h_change":4.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":3.922548294067383,"normalized_volume":13.213083267211914,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:10.869221Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.026389,0.025784,0.022085,0.01109]},{"source":"manifold","id":"ds9ECyNpuP","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"David Sacks","group_item_title":"David Sacks","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.057201,0.942799],"probability":0.057201,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":857.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.02670399999999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":16.87873649597168,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.083905,0.081003,0.077857,0.057593]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cqI6tUqQu6","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Marc Andreessen","group_item_title":"Marc Andreessen","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.019921,0.980079],"probability":0.019921,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":43.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.005461999999999998,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":5.297682285308838,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.025383,0.024832,0.024226,0.020009]},{"source":"manifold","id":"QuqOC0OdlU","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Elon Musk","group_item_title":"Elon Musk","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.015225,0.984775],"probability":0.015225,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":327.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.003568,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":12.415071487426758,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.018793,0.018441,0.01805,0.015283]},{"source":"manifold","id":"65NARnQzRO","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Michael Kratsios","group_item_title":"Michael Kratsios","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.01351,0.98649],"probability":0.01351,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.0030620000000000005,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.8438785076141357,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.016572,0.016271,0.015937,0.013561]},{"source":"manifold","id":"t2cpLnRn6z","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Emil Michael","group_item_title":"Emil Michael","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.012509,0.987491],"probability":0.012509,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":10.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.0027340000000000003,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":2.127161979675293,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.015243,0.014975,0.014678,0.012555]},{"source":"manifold","id":"zLZCU5gN5z","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Eliezer Yudkowsky","group_item_title":"Eliezer Yudkowsky","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.012409,0.987591],"probability":0.012409,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4121.472393427159,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":0.004234,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.63456916809082,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.008175,0.008073,0.007958,0.007114]},{"source":"manifold","id":"5LPlhCsuQu","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Mark Zuckerberg","group_item_title":"Mark Zuckerberg","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.012143,0.987857],"probability":0.012143,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.002626,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.5996816158294678,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.014769,0.014512,0.014227,0.012186]},{"source":"manifold","id":"Pp5Iu9h2P6","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Jensen Huang","group_item_title":"Jensen Huang","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.011407,0.988593],"probability":0.011407,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":5.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.0023669999999999993,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":1.1876802444458008,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.013774,0.013543,0.013287,0.011446]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sPLO0gAPCp","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Marco Rubio","group_item_title":"Marco Rubio","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.010342,0.989658],"probability":0.010342,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":0.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.002047,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":null,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.012389,0.012191,0.01197,0.010377]},{"source":"manifold","id":"dcAOQZd6E8","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Rudy Giuliani","group_item_title":"Rudy Giuliani","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.007627,0.992373],"probability":0.007627,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-20T00:38:42.277000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1947.6133132119987,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.0029980000000000007,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":21.227109909057617,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.010625,0.010304,0.009955,0.007672]},{"source":"manifold","id":"sOCq8hdzIC","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Donald Trump","group_item_title":"Donald Trump","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.007551,0.992449],"probability":0.007551,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:42:45.243000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1002.0,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.0012759999999999994,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":17.66813087463379,"liquidity":194.1450686788302,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.008827,0.008705,0.00857,0.007573]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tlgLZzEuId","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":" Dario Amodei","group_item_title":" Dario Amodei","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.005903,0.994097],"probability":0.005903,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-20T09:30:20.817000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":217.83764972710077,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.004945999999999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":10.741093635559082,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.010849,0.010188,0.009505,0.005815]},{"source":"manifold","id":"tIcUcgUQpL","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Dean Ball","group_item_title":"Dean Ball","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.005727,0.994273],"probability":0.005727,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-20T01:26:56.400000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":1086.2180267607018,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.004731999999999999,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":18.08279800415039,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.010459,0.009857,0.009231,0.005785]},{"source":"manifold","id":"2utpts8lUL","event_id":"QdhyScACtC","slug":null,"question":"Leopold Aschenbrenner ","group_item_title":"Leopold Aschenbrenner ","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.00399,0.99601],"probability":0.00399,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-09-19T23:49:21.119000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":108.76346432404819,"volume_24hr":null,"prob_24h_change":-0.0010170000000000005,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.166326522827148,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Politics","Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-20T15:19:07.832927Z","added_at":"2026-09-20T12:31:38.237348Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Joshua/who-will-trump-announce-as-his-new","event_title":"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?","chart_24h":[0.005007,0.004905,0.004793,0.004007]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/QdhyScACtC","as_of":"2026-09-20T15:38:20.937466Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Who will Trump announce as his new AI Czar?\" — top market at 58% probability across 19 outcomes","source_url":null}}