{"source":"manifold","id":"QpEIX5tQfN5ZODbMztoB","ticker":null,"slug":"if-trump-wins-will-the-us-enter-a-r","title":"If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?","description":"If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A. \n\nIf Trump does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No. \n\nI will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT\nIf any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (For a \"no\" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.) \n\nSweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.\n\nCompare: \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/PeterF/if-harris-wins-will-the-us-enter-a?r=UGV0ZXJG)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-11T23:22:55.646000Z","end_date":"2027-02-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96169.12280274264,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":49.420555114746094,"liquidity":6953.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.299189,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.299189,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-06T12:10:19.316225Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-06T12:10:19.316225Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/PeterF/if-trump-wins-will-the-us-enter-a-r","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"QpEIX5tQfN5ZODbMztoB","event_id":"QpEIX5tQfN5ZODbMztoB","slug":"if-trump-wins-will-the-us-enter-a-r","question":"If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A. \n\nIf Trump does win, resolves Yes if the US enters a recession (according to the Sahm Rule recession indicator) before the start of 2027. Otherwise resolves No. \n\nI will use the Sahm Rule recession indicator as shown here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMCURRENT\nIf any datapoint in 2025 or 2026 is 0.5% or greater (i.e. if the 3-month-moving average of unemployment is at least 0.5% above its 12-month low) then a recession is underway, per this rule. (For a \"no\" resolution, I'll wait until February 2027 in case of revisions, and use the most recent revision at that time.) \n\nSweeps update: We may close this market temporarily around election day to prevent manipulation.\n\nCompare: \n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/PeterF/if-harris-wins-will-the-us-enter-a?r=UGV0ZXJG)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.299189,0.700811],"probability":0.299189,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-11T23:22:55.646000Z","end_date":"2027-02-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":96169.12280274264,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":49.420555114746094,"liquidity":6953.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T15:00:14.051552Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-06T12:08:20.520059Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/PeterF/if-trump-wins-will-the-us-enter-a-r","event_title":"If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/QpEIX5tQfN5ZODbMztoB","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:21:22.926854Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"If Trump wins, will the US enter a recession [WARNING: as measured by Sahm rule] before 2027?\" — top market at 30% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}