{"source":"manifold","id":"QpyuAEp2Al","ticker":null,"slug":"will-colossal-biosciences-deextinct","title":"Will Colossal Biosciences de-extinct a species by the end of 2028? (READ DESCRIPTION)","description":"Wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences\n\nNews Coverage: https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/15/colossal-biosciences-raises-200m-at-10-2b-valuation-to-bring-back-woolly-mammoths/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEXrGf7oN5GWuZbQhTDTVA-x2OpHvO0w9xWfPTYXQr5T0MiCtBcRjM5iCEppHe5AfMo_KGqUC8EJsqfY3F0SLG64N3ljM9vYPVpAzWxtwxxn4ekm4ERkMGPR-BSyaKzVg7DWO7uEO3ac0FaipEKUjGv5XP_pQs_xCq_vXvKGU3Qv\n\nThis resolves YES if the Wooly Mammoth, Tasmanian Tiger, Dodo Bird, or any other extinct species has been de-extincted by the end of 2028 by Colossal Biosciences (or a company or organization that purchases them, contracts with them, or is associated with them meaningfully).\n\nBy “de-extincted” this would probably look like the birth of a mammoth calf or dodo chick, for example.  If they find another way of bringing back a specimen to life that’s okay too, although I can’t really imagine how that would work.\n\nShould be fairly clear-cut of a resolution but I will still not bet in this market so I can remain unbiased.\n\n(EDIT: It looks like it will actually not be a clear-cut resolution haha)\n\nUpdate 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional De-extinction Validation for Genetically Modified Specimens:\n\nFor cases involving modified species (e.g., attempts to create a Dire Wolf by inserting genes into Gray Wolf DNA), a YES resolution requires convincing scientific validation that the resulting specimen meets the criteria for being of the target extinct species.\n\nThe specimen should be plausibly able to breed with established members of the target species.\n\nIt should be genetically closer to the target species than to its original lineage.\n\nWithout such validation, modifications that only insert a few genes or alter the appearance are not sufficient to count as de-extinction.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Guidance on Validation for Modified Specimens:\n\nOne specimen is sufficient: A single specimen can count toward a YES resolution if it meets the criteria.\n\nViability is confirmed: The specimen’s current viability is considered adequate.\n\nTarget species validation: For cases like recreating a Dire Wolf, there must be persuasive evidence that the specimen is truly of the target extinct species and not merely a Gray Wolf with a few modified traits.\n\nAcceptable forms of validation may include:\n\nA clear consensus among other scientists that the specimen qualifies as the target species.\n\nA peer-reviewed study showing significant genetic alignment (for example, a quantifiable measure like 65% progression from the original species toward the extinct one).\n\nA detailed analysis (such as a well-documented blog post) that provides compelling scientific reasoning.\n\nInterbreeding criteria: Although not detailed further, the specimen is expected to be plausibly able to breed with established members of the target species as per the original resolution guidelines.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator\n\nPreponderance of Evidence: The resolution for modified specimens (e.g., recreating a Dire Wolf) will be determined by the overall consensus and weight of scientific evidence over a couple of months.\n\nYes Resolution Criteria: If the consensus is that the specimen is \"sort of a dire wolf but it's not perfect,\" the market will resolve as YES.\n\nAmbiguous Outcome: If the consensus is that the specimen is merely a wolf with a few traits reminiscent of a dire wolf (i.e., just giving off dire wolf vibes), the resolution will remain unconfirmed until further evidence is provided (with the market holding out until the end of 2028).","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/benshindel/86gZNuqSpt.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-16T03:05:04.186000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4915.085740469209,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.122989654541016,"liquidity":100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.143417,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Colossal Biosciences de-extinct a species by the end of 2028? (READ DESCRIPTION)","top_outcome_probability":0.143417,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/bens/will-colossal-biosciences-deextinct","chart_24h":[0.143417,0.143417],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"QpyuAEp2Al","event_id":"QpyuAEp2Al","slug":"will-colossal-biosciences-deextinct","question":"Will Colossal Biosciences de-extinct a species by the end of 2028? (READ DESCRIPTION)","group_item_title":null,"description":"Wikipedia: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colossal_Biosciences\n\nNews Coverage: https://techcrunch.com/2025/01/15/colossal-biosciences-raises-200m-at-10-2b-valuation-to-bring-back-woolly-mammoths/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAEXrGf7oN5GWuZbQhTDTVA-x2OpHvO0w9xWfPTYXQr5T0MiCtBcRjM5iCEppHe5AfMo_KGqUC8EJsqfY3F0SLG64N3ljM9vYPVpAzWxtwxxn4ekm4ERkMGPR-BSyaKzVg7DWO7uEO3ac0FaipEKUjGv5XP_pQs_xCq_vXvKGU3Qv\n\nThis resolves YES if the Wooly Mammoth, Tasmanian Tiger, Dodo Bird, or any other extinct species has been de-extincted by the end of 2028 by Colossal Biosciences (or a company or organization that purchases them, contracts with them, or is associated with them meaningfully).\n\nBy “de-extincted” this would probably look like the birth of a mammoth calf or dodo chick, for example.  If they find another way of bringing back a specimen to life that’s okay too, although I can’t really imagine how that would work.\n\nShould be fairly clear-cut of a resolution but I will still not bet in this market so I can remain unbiased.\n\n(EDIT: It looks like it will actually not be a clear-cut resolution haha)\n\nUpdate 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional De-extinction Validation for Genetically Modified Specimens:\n\nFor cases involving modified species (e.g., attempts to create a Dire Wolf by inserting genes into Gray Wolf DNA), a YES resolution requires convincing scientific validation that the resulting specimen meets the criteria for being of the target extinct species.\n\nThe specimen should be plausibly able to breed with established members of the target species.\n\nIt should be genetically closer to the target species than to its original lineage.\n\nWithout such validation, modifications that only insert a few genes or alter the appearance are not sufficient to count as de-extinction.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Guidance on Validation for Modified Specimens:\n\nOne specimen is sufficient: A single specimen can count toward a YES resolution if it meets the criteria.\n\nViability is confirmed: The specimen’s current viability is considered adequate.\n\nTarget species validation: For cases like recreating a Dire Wolf, there must be persuasive evidence that the specimen is truly of the target extinct species and not merely a Gray Wolf with a few modified traits.\n\nAcceptable forms of validation may include:\n\nA clear consensus among other scientists that the specimen qualifies as the target species.\n\nA peer-reviewed study showing significant genetic alignment (for example, a quantifiable measure like 65% progression from the original species toward the extinct one).\n\nA detailed analysis (such as a well-documented blog post) that provides compelling scientific reasoning.\n\nInterbreeding criteria: Although not detailed further, the specimen is expected to be plausibly able to breed with established members of the target species as per the original resolution guidelines.\n\nUpdate 2025-04-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator\n\nPreponderance of Evidence: The resolution for modified specimens (e.g., recreating a Dire Wolf) will be determined by the overall consensus and weight of scientific evidence over a couple of months.\n\nYes Resolution Criteria: If the consensus is that the specimen is \"sort of a dire wolf but it's not perfect,\" the market will resolve as YES.\n\nAmbiguous Outcome: If the consensus is that the specimen is merely a wolf with a few traits reminiscent of a dire wolf (i.e., just giving off dire wolf vibes), the resolution will remain unconfirmed until further evidence is provided (with the market holding out until the end of 2028).","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/benshindel/86gZNuqSpt.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.143417,0.856583],"probability":0.143417,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-01-16T03:05:04.186000Z","end_date":"2029-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":4915.085740469209,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":27.122989654541016,"liquidity":100.0,"categories":["Science and Technology","Business"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-05T13:29:58.281893Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/bens/will-colossal-biosciences-deextinct","event_title":"Will Colossal Biosciences de-extinct a species by the end of 2028? (READ DESCRIPTION)","chart_24h":[0.143417,0.143417]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/QpyuAEp2Al","as_of":"2026-06-10T23:06:05.091930Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Colossal Biosciences de-extinct a species by the end of 2028? (READ DESCRIPTION)\" — top market at 14% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}