{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/REC5CnSSSz","as_of":"2026-11-09T08:00:37.199215Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?\" — 5% as of 2026-10-30 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/REC5CnSSSz","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-china-attack-or-block"},"source":"manifold","id":"REC5CnSSSz","ticker":null,"slug":"acx-2026-will-china-attack-or-block","title":"[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?","description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41139)\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if during 2026, any of the following occur:\n\nChine conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.\n\nChina conducts a military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.\n\nMost commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T22:33:22.485000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":19859.023493277273,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.000770568847656,"liquidity":5100.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.054616,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.054616,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-30T00:42:23.768426Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-30T00:42:23.768426Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T15:09:05.487754Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-china-attack-or-block","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"REC5CnSSSz","event_id":"REC5CnSSSz","slug":"acx-2026-will-china-attack-or-block","question":"[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41139)\nResolves according to Metaculus resolution.\n\nMetaculus high-level description:\nThis question will resolve as Yes if during 2026, any of the following occur:\n\nChine conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.\n\nChina conducts a military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.\n\nMost commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.054616,0.945384],"probability":0.054616,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-01-06T22:33:22.485000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":19859.023493277273,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.000770568847656,"liquidity":5100.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["China","Taiwan"],"updated_at":"2026-10-30T00:40:58.047579Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-30T00:40:58.047579Z","added_at":"2026-07-24T15:09:05.487754Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/DaftPunkRock/acx-2026-will-china-attack-or-block","event_title":"[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?","chart_24h":null}]}