{"source":"manifold","id":"RQAbCjnhmzVhODm7MVco","ticker":null,"slug":"conditional-on-humanity-surviving-t","title":"Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?","description":"Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.\nResolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause\n\nFor the purpose of this question:\nA global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.\nA pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A 6-month pause qualifies as a global AI pause for the purpose of this market's resolution.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-05T02:47:16.435000Z","end_date":"2035-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6436.354702436405,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.450057983398438,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.403512,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?","top_outcome_probability":0.403512,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-21T07:58:46.313428Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-21T07:58:46.313428Z","added_at":"2026-09-13T07:18:45.602288Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/conditional-on-humanity-surviving-t","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"RQAbCjnhmzVhODm7MVco","event_id":"RQAbCjnhmzVhODm7MVco","slug":"conditional-on-humanity-surviving-t","question":"Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.\nResolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause\n\nFor the purpose of this question:\nA global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.\nA pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.\n\nUpdate 2026-09-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A 6-month pause qualifies as a global AI pause for the purpose of this market's resolution.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.403512,0.596488],"probability":0.403512,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-05T02:47:16.435000Z","end_date":"2035-01-02T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":6436.354702436405,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":28.450057983398438,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-21T07:58:12.113088Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-21T07:58:12.113088Z","added_at":"2026-09-13T07:18:45.602288Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/conditional-on-humanity-surviving-t","event_title":"Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/RQAbCjnhmzVhODm7MVco","as_of":"2026-09-22T18:48:20.030242Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted?\" — top market at 40% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}