{"source":"manifold","id":"RSL99m4i46Kl1aztwP8Y","ticker":"RSL99m4i46Kl1aztwP8Y","slug":"will-biden-trump-outing-or-xi-die-f","title":"Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die first?","description":"They're all in their eighth or ninth decades!","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/AndrewG%2Ff7957f62034e.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-01T15:06:07.509000Z","end_date":"2026-08-06T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":26017.58630119833,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":38.80038833618164,"liquidity":1740.0,"open_interest":null,"categories":["Politics","World"],"tags":["politics-default","russia","china","vladimir-putin","the-life-of-biden"],"synthetic":false,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":null,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Biden","top_outcome_probability":0.510581,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-06T13:18:31.417832Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-06T13:18:31.417832Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-biden-trump-outing-or-xi-die-f","chart_24h":null,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"45e4dd39b914","event_id":"RSL99m4i46Kl1aztwP8Y","slug":null,"question":"Biden","group_item_title":"Biden","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.510581,0.489419],"probability":0.510581,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-01T15:06:07.509000Z","end_date":"2026-08-06T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3911.1246442289935,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.685693740844727,"liquidity":617.7350269189626,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T15:22:30.497669Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T15:21:16.976071Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-biden-trump-outing-or-xi-die-f","event_title":"Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die first?","chart_24h":[0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581,0.510581]},{"source":"manifold","id":"d1d1fc50b643","event_id":"RSL99m4i46Kl1aztwP8Y","slug":null,"question":"Trump","group_item_title":"Trump","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.294531,0.705469],"probability":0.294531,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-01T15:06:07.509000Z","end_date":"2026-08-06T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2159.6150660827243,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":22.130970001220703,"liquidity":557.7350269189626,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T15:22:30.497669Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T15:21:16.976071Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-biden-trump-outing-or-xi-die-f","event_title":"Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die first?","chart_24h":[0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531,0.294531]},{"source":"manifold","id":"cfe0eeb7ab0b","event_id":"RSL99m4i46Kl1aztwP8Y","slug":null,"question":"Putin","group_item_title":"Putin","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.17,0.83],"probability":0.17,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-01T15:06:07.509000Z","end_date":"2026-08-06T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":452.9834265530088,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":14.051252365112305,"liquidity":317.7350269189626,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["Russia"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T15:22:30.497669Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T15:21:16.976071Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-biden-trump-outing-or-xi-die-f","event_title":"Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die first?","chart_24h":[0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17]},{"source":"manifold","id":"b180175f6215","event_id":"RSL99m4i46Kl1aztwP8Y","slug":null,"question":"Xi","group_item_title":"Xi","description":null,"image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.024888,0.975112],"probability":0.024888,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-01T15:06:07.509000Z","end_date":"2026-08-06T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":120.30390189480617,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":8.642951965332031,"liquidity":137.73502691896257,"categories":["Politics","World"],"countries":["China"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T15:22:30.497669Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-10T15:21:16.976071Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/AndrewG/will-biden-trump-outing-or-xi-die-f","event_title":"Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die first?","chart_24h":[0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888,0.024888]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/RSL99m4i46Kl1aztwP8Y","as_of":"2026-06-10T15:31:19.978116Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Biden, Trump, Putin, or Xi die first?\" — top market at 51% probability across 4 outcomes","source_url":null}}