{"source":"manifold","id":"Red8L367S1DreBesRRu3","ticker":null,"slug":"in-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-work","title":"In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)","description":"The third question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things\n\nThe full text is: \"In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark).\"\n\nJudgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.\n\nAmbiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.\n\nUpdate 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The AI can perform about as well as a good human cook in most kitchens\n\nIt does not require the kitchen to be reorganized for its use\n\nIt does not need to be able to work in any Michelin restaurant or make every dish\n\nIt does not need to navigate an adversarially designed kitchen","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-09-16T20:37:01.794000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15407.477611514956,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.90486145019531,"liquidity":1515.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.5,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)","top_outcome_probability":0.5,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-03T06:46:47.573580Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/vluzko/in-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-work","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"Red8L367S1DreBesRRu3","event_id":"Red8L367S1DreBesRRu3","slug":"in-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-work","question":"In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)","group_item_title":null,"description":"The third question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things\n\nThe full text is: \"In 2029, AI will not be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen (extending Steve Wozniak’s cup of coffee benchmark).\"\n\nJudgment will be by me, not Gary Marcus.\n\nAmbiguous whether this means start or end of 2029, so I have set it for the end.\n\nUpdate 2025-09-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The AI can perform about as well as a good human cook in most kitchens\n\nIt does not require the kitchen to be reorganized for its use\n\nIt does not need to be able to work in any Michelin restaurant or make every dish\n\nIt does not need to navigate an adversarially designed kitchen","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.5,0.5],"probability":0.5,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-09-16T20:37:01.794000Z","end_date":"2030-01-01T08:00:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":15407.477611514956,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":34.90486145019531,"liquidity":1515.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T17:41:01.558870Z","fetched_at":"2026-05-07T06:19:48.420812Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/vluzko/in-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-work","event_title":"In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)","chart_24h":[0.5,0.5]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Red8L367S1DreBesRRu3","as_of":"2026-06-10T13:09:54.947121Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)\" — top market at 50% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}