{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Rm87uyhzOEfLvyEftfg6","as_of":"2026-10-24T08:25:57.432336Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"A humanoid robot kills a human by 2030\" — 51% as of 2026-09-12 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Rm87uyhzOEfLvyEftfg6","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/a-humanoid-robot-kills-a-human-by-2"},"source":"manifold","id":"Rm87uyhzOEfLvyEftfg6","ticker":null,"slug":"a-humanoid-robot-kills-a-human-by-2","title":"A humanoid robot kills a human by 2030","description":"Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a humanoid robot causing a human death by 2030. Has to be unaided by other tech. Could be an accident, ie the  falling on the person. Must be a humanoid.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/GabeGarboden%2F5b9d1c6f7e5e.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-21T02:44:03.703000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":2738.4650127674404,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.04541015625,"liquidity":1040.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.513091,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"A humanoid robot kills a human by 2030","top_outcome_probability":0.513091,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-09-12T19:28:27.909717Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-12T19:28:27.909717Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/a-humanoid-robot-kills-a-human-by-2","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"Rm87uyhzOEfLvyEftfg6","event_id":"Rm87uyhzOEfLvyEftfg6","slug":"a-humanoid-robot-kills-a-human-by-2","question":"A humanoid robot kills a human by 2030","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves Yes if there's credible news coverage of a humanoid robot causing a human death by 2030. Has to be unaided by other tech. Could be an accident, ie the  falling on the person. Must be a humanoid.","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/GabeGarboden%2F5b9d1c6f7e5e.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.513091,0.486909],"probability":0.513091,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-21T02:44:03.703000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":2738.4650127674404,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":23.04541015625,"liquidity":1040.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-09-12T19:27:44.750842Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-12T19:27:44.750842Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/a-humanoid-robot-kills-a-human-by-2","event_title":"A humanoid robot kills a human by 2030","chart_24h":null}]}