{"source":"manifold","id":"RqZ5ltIL2t","ticker":null,"slug":"will-the-us-deploy-1000-ground-troo","title":"Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?","description":"Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026.\n\nResolves to a consensus of popular reporting.  If there's an estimate like \"about a thousand\", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question.\n\nI will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-03T04:02:33.836000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":90218.13085458585,"volume_24hr":58.26217887265609,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.474085807800293,"normalized_volume":48.12047576904297,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.1,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.1,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-24T23:47:09.335324Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-24T23:47:09.335324Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/bens/will-the-us-deploy-1000-ground-troo","chart_24h":[0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"RqZ5ltIL2t","event_id":"RqZ5ltIL2t","slug":"will-the-us-deploy-1000-ground-troo","question":"Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves YES if at least 1000 ground troops are deployed in Iran in 2026.\n\nResolves to a consensus of popular reporting.  If there's an estimate like \"about a thousand\", that will be adequate, I don't want to litigate which of two independent estimates of 950 or 1050 troops are more accurate; I'll resolve in the spirit of the question.\n\nI will not bet in this market (after initial bet to a reasonable probability).","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.1,0.9],"probability":0.1,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-03-03T04:02:33.836000Z","end_date":"2026-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":90218.13085458585,"volume_24hr":58.26217887265609,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":13.417220115661621,"normalized_volume":48.12047576904297,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["United States","Iran"],"updated_at":"2026-09-24T23:44:59.689746Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-24T23:44:59.689746Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/bens/will-the-us-deploy-1000-ground-troo","event_title":"Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?","chart_24h":[0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/RqZ5ltIL2t","as_of":"2026-09-25T00:07:38.661142Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?\" — top market at 10% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}