{"source":"manifold","id":"S09PzUCuOp","ticker":null,"slug":"will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-609shENQnu","title":"Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?","description":"2027 version of https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-a3b3eb99c337\n\nIn line with progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can defeat the Ender Dragon before Jan 1, 2027? To establish an objective baseline of competence and consistency in achieving this task, I'll stipulate that such a system must beat the Ender Dragon in less than 150 minutes of in-game time (deaths allowed) in at least 1% of runs.\n\nSystems which are pretrained on human data are allowed.\n\nThe system must only use observational data that includes what a human player would be able to see while playing the game (including the debug screen), like the Minedojo simulator. Systems which have active access to external reference information (like a Wiki) are fine, as long as it does not include additional information on the specific world that the agent is playing in.\n\n2026 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-CPpOcyROzc\n2028 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-Ls5ugPg6yU\n2029 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-OzAACndlZA","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-26T20:35:21.185000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7524.846348296292,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.871158599853516,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["minecraft","ai","ai-impacts","technology-default","technical-ai-timelines"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.278683,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.278683,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-08T03:21:09.313594Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-08T03:21:09.313594Z","added_at":"2026-07-20T07:16:26.068308Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-609shENQnu","chart_24h":[0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"S09PzUCuOp","event_id":"S09PzUCuOp","slug":"will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-609shENQnu","question":"Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"2027 version of https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-a3b3eb99c337\n\nIn line with progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can defeat the Ender Dragon before Jan 1, 2027? To establish an objective baseline of competence and consistency in achieving this task, I'll stipulate that such a system must beat the Ender Dragon in less than 150 minutes of in-game time (deaths allowed) in at least 1% of runs.\n\nSystems which are pretrained on human data are allowed.\n\nThe system must only use observational data that includes what a human player would be able to see while playing the game (including the debug screen), like the Minedojo simulator. Systems which have active access to external reference information (like a Wiki) are fine, as long as it does not include additional information on the specific world that the agent is playing in.\n\n2026 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-CPpOcyROzc\n2028 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-Ls5ugPg6yU\n2029 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-OzAACndlZA","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.278683,0.721317],"probability":0.278683,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2025-08-26T20:35:21.185000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7524.846348296292,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.871158599853516,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-08T03:21:04.854140Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-08T03:21:04.854140Z","added_at":"2026-07-20T07:16:26.068308Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-609shENQnu","event_title":"Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?","chart_24h":[0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683,0.278683]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/S09PzUCuOp","as_of":"2026-08-08T04:46:23.368702Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?\" — top market at 28% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}