{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/S6myonFL4agK3orA9udU","as_of":"2026-10-24T03:02:38.763941Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will we get AGI before 2046?\" — 84% as of 2026-10-11 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/S6myonFL4agK3orA9udU","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046"},"source":"manifold","id":"S6myonFL4agK3orA9udU","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2046","title":"Will we get AGI before 2046?","description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2046\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther reference points for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FKr7xs7RWE-.png?alt=media&token=cd07cdd6-1e34-4c6b-8add-647e2d36b99d","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-17T18:13:32.799000Z","end_date":"2046-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8067.358990566582,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.768850326538086,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.843603,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get AGI before 2046?","top_outcome_probability":0.843603,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-10-11T08:16:11.332414Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T08:16:11.332414Z","added_at":"2026-08-02T13:14:17.686288Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"S6myonFL4agK3orA9udU","event_id":"S6myonFL4agK3orA9udU","slug":"will-we-get-agi-before-2046","question":"Will we get AGI before 2046?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.\n\nResolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2046\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2036 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2037 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2038 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2039 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2040 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2041 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2042 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2043 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2044 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048 \n\nRelated markets:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2029 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2030 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2031 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2032 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2033 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035 \n\nOther reference points for AGI:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid ","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FKr7xs7RWE-.png?alt=media&token=cd07cdd6-1e34-4c6b-8add-647e2d36b99d","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.843603,0.156397],"probability":0.843603,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-17T18:13:32.799000Z","end_date":"2046-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":8067.358990566582,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":29.768850326538086,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-10-11T08:15:30.972810Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-11T08:15:30.972810Z","added_at":"2026-08-02T13:14:17.686288Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046","event_title":"Will we get AGI before 2046?","chart_24h":null}]}