{"source":"manifold","id":"SCdunNyldp","ticker":null,"slug":"will-claude-fable-5-be-reenabled-fo","title":"Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?","description":"Any \"Mythos-class\" model will count.\nAnthropic API Customers or Subscription; with or without KYC.\nDay threshold will be midnight AOE.\n\nUpdate 2026-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market resolves YES if Claude Fable 5 (or any Mythos-class model) is re-enabled for some significant proportion of non-Americans — but access limited to only Anthropic employees does not count (or a program similar to Glasswing).\n\nUpdate 2026-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Non-American is defined as a non-US foreign national based outside of the US.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-13T09:47:25.273000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8139.669833315189,"volume_24hr":1324.3367784962875,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":39.07748794555664,"normalized_volume":30.42791175842285,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.45489,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.45489,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.04056299999999996,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":378.813746677425,"updated_at":"2026-06-20T16:03:36.291860Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-20T16:03:36.291860Z","added_at":"2026-06-19T09:16:11.380618Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/TheHouseAlwaysResolves/will-claude-fable-5-be-reenabled-fo","chart_24h":[0.495453,0.495453,0.495453,0.459655,0.44,0.44,0.513936,0.513936,0.513936,0.513936,0.513936,0.513936,0.513936,0.496114,0.496114,0.496114,0.496114,0.496114,0.496114,0.551536,0.551536,0.527119,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.45489,0.45489],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"SCdunNyldp","event_id":"SCdunNyldp","slug":"will-claude-fable-5-be-reenabled-fo","question":"Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Any \"Mythos-class\" model will count.\nAnthropic API Customers or Subscription; with or without KYC.\nDay threshold will be midnight AOE.\n\nUpdate 2026-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Market resolves YES if Claude Fable 5 (or any Mythos-class model) is re-enabled for some significant proportion of non-Americans — but access limited to only Anthropic employees does not count (or a program similar to Glasswing).\n\nUpdate 2026-06-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Non-American is defined as a non-US foreign national based outside of the US.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.45489,0.54511],"probability":0.45489,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-06-13T09:47:25.273000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":8139.669833315189,"volume_24hr":1324.3367784962875,"prob_24h_change":-0.04056299999999996,"volume_24h_change":378.813746677425,"normalized_vol_24hr":40.85698318481445,"normalized_volume":30.42791175842285,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-20T16:02:51.569907Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-20T16:02:51.569907Z","added_at":"2026-06-19T09:16:11.380618Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/TheHouseAlwaysResolves/will-claude-fable-5-be-reenabled-fo","event_title":"Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?","chart_24h":[0.495453,0.495453,0.495453,0.459655,0.44,0.44,0.513936,0.513936,0.513936,0.513936,0.513936,0.513936,0.513936,0.496114,0.496114,0.496114,0.496114,0.496114,0.496114,0.551536,0.551536,0.527119,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.45489,0.45489]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/SCdunNyldp","as_of":"2026-06-20T16:06:56.556988Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Claude Fable 5 be re-enabled for Non-Americans before July 1st, 2026?\" — top market at 45% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}