{"source":"manifold","id":"STAoRuC1KynnFnGA65Ps","ticker":null,"slug":"will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5","title":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?","description":"Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2035 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 \n\nNumeric market:\n\n@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors \n\nOther reference points for fusion reactors:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c \n\nOther questions for 2035:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-lunar-163b9107ef15 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ece7abf70bde@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-285b5811deab \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac \n\nEngineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven\n\nThe fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDSqP8gu6_w.webp?alt=media&token=4170347d-da1a-4e5f-b80a-50df99d9930e","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-03T00:07:02.567000Z","end_date":"2035-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3628.5892497456566,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.194364547729492,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":["fusion-energy","nuclear-fusion-reactor","science-default","technology-default"],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.512798,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?","top_outcome_probability":0.512798,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-07-19T11:02:56.819265Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T11:02:56.819265Z","added_at":"2026-05-06T01:35:13.741131Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5","chart_24h":[0.512798,0.512798],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"STAoRuC1KynnFnGA65Ps","event_id":"STAoRuC1KynnFnGA65Ps","slug":"will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5","question":"Will we get fusion reactors before 2035?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves as YES if we have built a fusion reactor that has run continuously for at least 24 hours prior to January 1st 2035 at engineering breakeven (Q_E >= 1).\n\nQuestions with the same criteria:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a380452919f1 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-93a1ac777df5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-f5a1947c172a \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-99b4d79ded14 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-600c021a4d39 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-0f87d48233f5 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-a34a5044ccca \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5 (this question)\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-607391b6e7ff \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-9594f28b5777 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-c3873b782b65 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-8213a4d4f7e6 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-ca980dd1dca2 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-719c22dafd13 \n\nNumeric market:\n\n@/RemNi/what-year-do-we-get-fusion-reactors \n\nOther reference points for fusion reactors:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-585b179f8ac3 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-ba35c785123c \n\nOther questions for 2035:\n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd \n\n@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-lunar-163b9107ef15 \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-ab3eca7983aa \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ece7abf70bde@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-285b5811deab \n\n@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-8ae988ef1cac \n\nEngineering breakeven is defined here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_energy_gain_factor#Engineering_breakeven\n\nThe fusion reactor must have been built by human civilization or one of its descendants in order to qualify in the context of this question.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2FDSqP8gu6_w.webp?alt=media&token=4170347d-da1a-4e5f-b80a-50df99d9930e","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.512798,0.487202],"probability":0.512798,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-02-03T00:07:02.567000Z","end_date":"2035-03-01T22:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":3628.5892497456566,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":25.194364547729492,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-07-25T05:28:08.889800Z","fetched_at":"2026-07-19T11:02:47.910685Z","added_at":"2026-05-06T01:35:13.741131Z","url":"https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d778d2f304f5","event_title":"Will we get fusion reactors before 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