{"source":"manifold","id":"SZsB1qAWRIePvv49d51f","ticker":null,"slug":"if-trump-wins-will-he-appoint-anoth","title":"If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?","description":"This market resolves yes if Donald Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027. Only a justice who is confirmed by the Senate counts.\n\nIf Donald Trump is not re-elected, this market resolves N/A.\n\nMay differ from the same Biden conditional market due to different probabilities of also controlling the Senate and strategically timed retirements. See here for the market on if Biden wins:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-wins-will-she-appoint-ano)","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-10T00:19:53.794000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":54216.294743629216,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.00569152832031,"liquidity":6965.5,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.1221,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?","top_outcome_probability":0.1221,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-250.0,"updated_at":"2026-09-08T12:26:14.705514Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T12:26:14.705514Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cantankerous/if-trump-wins-will-he-appoint-anoth","chart_24h":[0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"SZsB1qAWRIePvv49d51f","event_id":"SZsB1qAWRIePvv49d51f","slug":"if-trump-wins-will-he-appoint-anoth","question":"If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?","group_item_title":null,"description":"This market resolves yes if Donald Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027. Only a justice who is confirmed by the Senate counts.\n\nIf Donald Trump is not re-elected, this market resolves N/A.\n\nMay differ from the same Biden conditional market due to different probabilities of also controlling the Senate and strategically timed retirements. See here for the market on if Biden wins:\n\n(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-wins-will-she-appoint-ano)","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.1221,0.8779],"probability":0.1221,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-03-10T00:19:53.794000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":54216.294743629216,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":-250.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":44.00569152832031,"liquidity":6965.5,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-09-08T12:24:27.302989Z","fetched_at":"2026-09-08T12:24:27.302989Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cantankerous/if-trump-wins-will-he-appoint-anoth","event_title":"If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?","chart_24h":[0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221,0.1221]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/SZsB1qAWRIePvv49d51f","as_of":"2026-09-09T00:02:17.214125Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?\" — top market at 12% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}