{"_meta":{"attribution":"Data aggregated by pdata.world (https://pdata.world) from 8 prediction-market venues; CC BY 4.0; source data © each venue.","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Sq2LGC5SeiXKHgjEyqZq","as_of":"2026-10-08T03:18:49.422457Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)\" — 86% as of 2026-06-22 UTC. https://pdata.world/events/manifold/Sq2LGC5SeiXKHgjEyqZq","source_url":"https://manifold.markets/NGK/will-new-glenn-blue-origin-reach-ma"},"source":"manifold","id":"Sq2LGC5SeiXKHgjEyqZq","ticker":null,"slug":"will-new-glenn-blue-origin-reach-ma","title":"Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)","description":"Based on this article:\n\nhttps://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/\n\nFor this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars. \n\nThe orbit has to be stable \n\nOR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface\n\nIf it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count. \n\nI’ll indefinitely push market close out until this resolves Yes or No. ","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-24T00:08:43.311000Z","end_date":"2027-12-28T12:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":22307.33958842666,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.91722869873047,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.86,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)","top_outcome_probability":0.86,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-06-22T14:19:58.347583Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-22T14:19:58.347583Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NGK/will-new-glenn-blue-origin-reach-ma","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","mutually_exclusive":false,"markets_total":1,"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"Sq2LGC5SeiXKHgjEyqZq","event_id":"Sq2LGC5SeiXKHgjEyqZq","slug":"will-new-glenn-blue-origin-reach-ma","question":"Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)","group_item_title":null,"description":"Based on this article:\n\nhttps://www.theregister.com/AMP/2023/11/23/blue_origin_glenn_rocket_mars/\n\nFor this market I’m defining “Reaching Mars” as being captured into an orbit around Mars. \n\nThe orbit has to be stable \n\nOR if it’s unstable it has to be descending towards the Martian surface\n\nIf it’s unstable and gets slingshot out into interplanetary space then it will not count. \n\nI’ll indefinitely push market close out until this resolves Yes or No. ","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.86,0.14],"probability":0.86,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-11-24T00:08:43.311000Z","end_date":"2027-12-28T12:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"result":null,"volume":22307.33958842666,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":36.91722869873047,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-28T22:16:32.763136Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-22T14:19:16.007045Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/NGK/will-new-glenn-blue-origin-reach-ma","event_title":"Will New Glenn (Blue Origin) reach Mars before Starship/Falcon (SpaceX)","chart_24h":null}]}