{"source":"manifold","id":"SsPCE7bS0OfXRdC5ldDe","ticker":null,"slug":"will-vanguard-bring-a-bitcoin-etf-t","title":"Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?","description":"Vanguard and Bitcoin mean what a reasonable person thinks they mean. Brings to market is “This can be purchased through at least one discount brokerage in the U.S. on any day before this times out.” I expect resolution to be utterly unambiguous.\n\nThis market mirrors a Twitter-based gentleman’s wager between Patio11 and Mike Dudas but resolution is based on ground truth not that wager.\n\nhttps://x.com/patio11/status/1745510066281656574?s=46&t=NAASaDpWsx9Lm3_OYE2hCQ","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/patio11%2F2623073c8301.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-11T18:45:14.230000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":33498.270265835294,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.75371551513672,"liquidity":1455.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Crypto"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.327941,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.327941,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-07T17:28:41.481757Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T17:28:41.481757Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/patio11/will-vanguard-bring-a-bitcoin-etf-t","chart_24h":[0.327941,0.327941],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"SsPCE7bS0OfXRdC5ldDe","event_id":"SsPCE7bS0OfXRdC5ldDe","slug":"will-vanguard-bring-a-bitcoin-etf-t","question":"Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Vanguard and Bitcoin mean what a reasonable person thinks they mean. Brings to market is “This can be purchased through at least one discount brokerage in the U.S. on any day before this times out.” I expect resolution to be utterly unambiguous.\n\nThis market mirrors a Twitter-based gentleman’s wager between Patio11 and Mike Dudas but resolution is based on ground truth not that wager.\n\nhttps://x.com/patio11/status/1745510066281656574?s=46&t=NAASaDpWsx9Lm3_OYE2hCQ","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/patio11%2F2623073c8301.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.327941,0.672059],"probability":0.327941,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-01-11T18:45:14.230000Z","end_date":"2030-01-02T05:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":33498.270265835294,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.75371551513672,"liquidity":1455.0,"categories":["Crypto"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-06-09T20:03:55.965901Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-07T17:25:43.184049Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/patio11/will-vanguard-bring-a-bitcoin-etf-t","event_title":"Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?","chart_24h":[0.327941,0.327941]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/SsPCE7bS0OfXRdC5ldDe","as_of":"2026-06-10T10:26:21.691598Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will Vanguard bring a Bitcoin ETF to market before Jan 1 2030?\" — top market at 33% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}