{"source":"manifold","id":"St5gAuStZL","ticker":null,"slug":"will-gay-marriage-be-illegal-in-the","title":"Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.","description":"Settles Yes if gay marriage is illegal on the federal level on the day prior to the last day Trump is president. \n\nPossible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market resolves to Yes if there is a federal law explicitly prohibiting gay marriage, even if individual states have laws permitting it (similar to the current federal/state dynamic with marijuana).","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/ChadwickMiller/2PEQdRELzR.jpg","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-12-05T16:35:21.301000Z","end_date":"2029-01-23T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":84562.45632776756,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":47.667720794677734,"liquidity":10000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Politics"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.03208,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.","top_outcome_probability":0.03208,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":null,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":null,"updated_at":"2026-08-28T22:40:43.459506Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-28T22:40:43.459506Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ChadwickMiller/will-gay-marriage-be-illegal-in-the","chart_24h":null,"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"St5gAuStZL","event_id":"St5gAuStZL","slug":"will-gay-marriage-be-illegal-in-the","question":"Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.","group_item_title":null,"description":"Settles Yes if gay marriage is illegal on the federal level on the day prior to the last day Trump is president. \n\nPossible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market resolves to Yes if there is a federal law explicitly prohibiting gay marriage, even if individual states have laws permitting it (similar to the current federal/state dynamic with marijuana).","image":"https://storage.googleapis.com/mantic-markets.appspot.com/contract-images/ChadwickMiller/2PEQdRELzR.jpg","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.03208,0.96792],"probability":0.03208,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2024-12-05T16:35:21.301000Z","end_date":"2029-01-23T04:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":84562.45632776756,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":null,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":47.667720794677734,"liquidity":10000.0,"categories":["Politics"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-08-29T05:47:21.658874Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-28T22:39:42.247065Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ChadwickMiller/will-gay-marriage-be-illegal-in-the","event_title":"Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.","chart_24h":null}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/St5gAuStZL","as_of":"2026-09-09T03:20:44.161482Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will gay marriage be illegal in the United States during Trump's presidency.\" — top market at 3% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}