{"source":"manifold","id":"TQwfVMKCjmUlyfa1b29Z","ticker":null,"slug":"pink-tide-will-leftists-still-gover","title":"Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?","description":"Leftists currently govern a majority of Latin American countries (13 out of 20). Between now and the end of 2026, every Latin American country will hold an election. Will the pink tide recede?\n\nA country is considered governed by leftists if a party affiliated with the São Paulo Forum is part of the governing coalition, or is the party of the president.\n\nA majority is 11 or more countries (50%+1).\n\nLatin America is defined as all of South America except for Guyana and Suriname, all of Central America except for Belize, plus Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.\n\nFor convenience, below are lists of Latin American countries with their approximate next election date, grouped by political alignment and democratic competitiveness.\n\nLeftist government, not democratically competitive:\n\nCuba: early 2023 (one-party state)\n\nVenezuela: mid 2025 (no viable non-leftists)\n\nNicaragua: Nov 2026 (no viable non-leftists)\n\nLeftist government, democratically competitive:\n\nMexico: Jul 2024\n\nHonduras: Nov 2025\n\nPanama: May 2024\n\nDominican Republic: May or Jul 2024\n\nColombia: Jun 2026 2025\n\nPeru: Apr-Jun 2026\n\nBolivia: Oct 2025\n\nBrazil: Oct 2026\n\nChile: Nov 2025\n\nArgentina: Oct 2023\n\nNon-leftist government, democratically competitive:\n\nGuatemala: Jun 2023\n\nEl Salvador: Feb 2024\n\nCosta Rica: Feb-Apr 2026\n\nEcuador: Feb-Apr\n\nParaguay: Apr 2023\n\nUruguay: Oct 2024\n\nNon-leftist government, not democratically competitive:\n\nHaiti: unknown (elections delayed since 2021)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FuS4ae2s2oY.png?alt=media&token=942359b4-d67e-446b-b6c8-9b05a1dc5227","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-04T14:39:18.374000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7562.329211041647,"volume_24hr":1055.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.82564163208008,"normalized_volume":29.390958786010742,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["World"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.049733,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?","top_outcome_probability":0.049733,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":-0.046377,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":-773.2558989495644,"updated_at":"2026-10-05T18:55:34.411327Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T18:55:34.411327Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/pink-tide-will-leftists-still-gover","chart_24h":[0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.066664,0.066664,0.066664,0.066664,0.066664,0.049733,0.049733,0.049733,0.049733,0.049733],"kind":"live","markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"TQwfVMKCjmUlyfa1b29Z","event_id":"TQwfVMKCjmUlyfa1b29Z","slug":"pink-tide-will-leftists-still-gover","question":"Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Leftists currently govern a majority of Latin American countries (13 out of 20). Between now and the end of 2026, every Latin American country will hold an election. Will the pink tide recede?\n\nA country is considered governed by leftists if a party affiliated with the São Paulo Forum is part of the governing coalition, or is the party of the president.\n\nA majority is 11 or more countries (50%+1).\n\nLatin America is defined as all of South America except for Guyana and Suriname, all of Central America except for Belize, plus Mexico, Cuba, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic.\n\nFor convenience, below are lists of Latin American countries with their approximate next election date, grouped by political alignment and democratic competitiveness.\n\nLeftist government, not democratically competitive:\n\nCuba: early 2023 (one-party state)\n\nVenezuela: mid 2025 (no viable non-leftists)\n\nNicaragua: Nov 2026 (no viable non-leftists)\n\nLeftist government, democratically competitive:\n\nMexico: Jul 2024\n\nHonduras: Nov 2025\n\nPanama: May 2024\n\nDominican Republic: May or Jul 2024\n\nColombia: Jun 2026 2025\n\nPeru: Apr-Jun 2026\n\nBolivia: Oct 2025\n\nBrazil: Oct 2026\n\nChile: Nov 2025\n\nArgentina: Oct 2023\n\nNon-leftist government, democratically competitive:\n\nGuatemala: Jun 2023\n\nEl Salvador: Feb 2024\n\nCosta Rica: Feb-Apr 2026\n\nEcuador: Feb-Apr\n\nParaguay: Apr 2023\n\nUruguay: Oct 2024\n\nNon-leftist government, not democratically competitive:\n\nHaiti: unknown (elections delayed since 2021)","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FuS4ae2s2oY.png?alt=media&token=942359b4-d67e-446b-b6c8-9b05a1dc5227","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.049733,0.950267],"probability":0.049733,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2022-12-04T14:39:18.374000Z","end_date":"2027-01-01T07:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":7562.329211041647,"volume_24hr":1055.0,"prob_24h_change":-0.046377,"volume_24h_change":-773.2558989495644,"normalized_vol_24hr":32.82564163208008,"normalized_volume":29.390958786010742,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["World"],"countries":["Argentina","Brazil","Mexico"],"updated_at":"2026-10-05T18:54:36.439234Z","fetched_at":"2026-10-05T18:54:36.439234Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/cash/pink-tide-will-leftists-still-gover","event_title":"Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?","chart_24h":[0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.09611,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.068779,0.066664,0.066664,0.066664,0.066664,0.066664,0.049733,0.049733,0.049733,0.049733,0.049733]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/TQwfVMKCjmUlyfa1b29Z","as_of":"2026-10-05T18:59:50.488409Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Pink Tide: Will leftists still govern a majority of Latin American countries at the end of 2026?\" — top market at 5% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}