{"source":"manifold","id":"TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi","ticker":null,"slug":"will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r","title":"Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?","description":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE\n\nUpdate 2023-12-06:\nI appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:\n\n\nThis only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate. If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts. I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FDPySa8Qoxm.png?alt=media&token=466321c9-ff15-4cc5-876c-036e388a29f7","icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-05-07T02:00:29.017000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":33880.886749899255,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.84260559082031,"liquidity":1370.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Economy"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.223107,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?","top_outcome_probability":0.223107,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-06-09T02:36:42.270483Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T02:36:42.270483Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r","chart_24h":[0.223107,0.223107],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi","event_id":"TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi","slug":"will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r","question":"Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?","group_item_title":null,"description":"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE\n\nUpdate 2023-12-06:\nI appreciate the discussion here, I know it's an ambiguous question and ultimately it's a judgement call, here's my best attempt at quantifying the intent:\n\n\nThis only resolves Yes if AI increasing worker productivity or taking over people's jobs is directly responsible for at least 3 percentage points of the unemployment rate. If unemployment rate spikes due to something else and then the jobs don't come back because AI takes them over, that counts. I will use sober economic analysis to judge this, and wait at least 6 months after a spike to wait for better data before resolving Yes.","image":"https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/dream%2FDPySa8Qoxm.png?alt=media&token=466321c9-ff15-4cc5-876c-036e388a29f7","icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.223107,0.776893],"probability":0.223107,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2023-05-07T02:00:29.017000Z","end_date":"2029-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":33880.886749899255,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":40.84260559082031,"liquidity":1370.0,"categories":["Economy"],"countries":["United States"],"updated_at":"2026-06-10T03:37:20.483894Z","fetched_at":"2026-06-09T02:34:46.433724Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ahalekelly/will-ai-cause-the-us-unemployment-r","event_title":"Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?","chart_24h":[0.223107,0.223107]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/TryNuKNJXNdiYDCXRpPi","as_of":"2026-06-10T12:05:20.789881Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"Will AI cause the US Unemployment Rate to exceed 10% before 2030?\" — top market at 22% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}