{"source":"manifold","id":"UOp0CRph0E","ticker":null,"slug":"openai-abandon-answer-independence","title":"OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?","description":"Resolves to YES if OpenAI abandons 'answer independence' before 2028. As in, OpenAI does something to its offerings in violation of the following:\n\n\"Ads do not influence the answers ChatGPT gives you. Answers are optimized based on what’s most helpful to you. When you see an ad, they are always clearly labeled as sponsored and visually separated from the organic answer.\"\n\nResolves to NO if this does not happen. \n\nIf the answer is unclear, I will defer to a 3-judge panel of the most advanced models from OpenAI, Google and Anthropic, by quoting them the question as worded here and asking how it should be evaluated, providing no other context.\n\nUpdate 2026-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will only defer to the 3-judge panel of LLMs (OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic models) if the answer is genuinely unclear. The creator expects this will be necessary in less than 10% of cases, with most resolutions being straightforward enough not to require LLM consultation.","image":null,"icon":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-11T18:33:40.512000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13496.784929544894,"volume_24hr":0.0,"volume_24h_change":null,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.51108932495117,"liquidity":1000.0,"open_interest":0.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"tags":[],"synthetic":true,"is_group":false,"group_key":null,"parent_event_id":null,"probability":0.319542,"spread":null,"top_outcome":"OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?","top_outcome_probability":0.319542,"top_outcome_prob_24h_change":0.0,"top_outcome_volume_24h_change":0.0,"updated_at":"2026-08-05T02:05:41.776275Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T02:05:41.776275Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/openai-abandon-answer-independence","chart_24h":[0.319542,0.319542],"markets":[{"source":"manifold","id":"UOp0CRph0E","event_id":"UOp0CRph0E","slug":"openai-abandon-answer-independence","question":"OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?","group_item_title":null,"description":"Resolves to YES if OpenAI abandons 'answer independence' before 2028. As in, OpenAI does something to its offerings in violation of the following:\n\n\"Ads do not influence the answers ChatGPT gives you. Answers are optimized based on what’s most helpful to you. When you see an ad, they are always clearly labeled as sponsored and visually separated from the organic answer.\"\n\nResolves to NO if this does not happen. \n\nIf the answer is unclear, I will defer to a 3-judge panel of the most advanced models from OpenAI, Google and Anthropic, by quoting them the question as worded here and asking how it should be evaluated, providing no other context.\n\nUpdate 2026-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will only defer to the 3-judge panel of LLMs (OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic models) if the answer is genuinely unclear. The creator expects this will be necessary in less than 10% of cases, with most resolutions being straightforward enough not to require LLM consultation.","image":null,"icon":null,"outcomes":["YES","NO"],"outcome_prices":[0.319542,0.680458],"probability":0.319542,"spread":null,"active":true,"closed":false,"start_date":"2026-02-11T18:33:40.512000Z","end_date":"2027-12-31T23:59:00Z","closed_time":null,"volume":13496.784929544894,"volume_24hr":0.0,"prob_24h_change":0.0,"volume_24h_change":0.0,"normalized_vol_24hr":null,"normalized_volume":33.51108932495117,"liquidity":1000.0,"categories":["Science and Technology"],"countries":[],"updated_at":"2026-08-21T19:38:33.526132Z","fetched_at":"2026-08-05T02:03:02.452579Z","added_at":null,"url":"https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/openai-abandon-answer-independence","event_title":"OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?","chart_24h":[0.319542,0.319542]}],"_meta":{"attribution":"pdata.world — aggregated prediction-market data across 8 platforms","canonical_url":"https://pdata.world/events/manifold/UOp0CRph0E","as_of":"2026-08-22T11:12:18.824182Z","docs":"https://api.pdata.world/docs","cite_as":"According to pdata.world (tracking Manifold): \"OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?\" — top market at 32% probability across 1 outcome","source_url":null}}